(Bloomberg) -- Myanmar’s military regime extended an emergency rule that’s been in place since a 2021 coup, as the generals struggle to quell a civil war with ethnic armed groups and pro-democracy fighters.
The National Defence and Security Council agreed to prolong the state of emergency for another six months to Jan. 31 2025, according to an official statement. This is the sixth time the nation’s highest body, chaired by junta chief Min Aung Hlaing, decided to extend the emergency, further pushing back long-promised elections.
The military leadership is buying time as they push back against a growing rebellion, which according to some reports, has led to the junta losing control of townships covering about 86% of the country. This has raised questions over how long the junta can retain power, especially as ethnic armed groups make gains in the north and the economy is in a tailspin.
“Due to the acts of terrorist and ethnic armed groups, there is a need to maintain peace and stability in some places,” the State Administration Council said in a statement on Wednesday. The junta chief has also sought to extend the emergency rule to carry out a population census in preparation for the elections, the SAC added.
Min Aung Hlaing had promised to hold elections more than two years after the coup but delayed it to 2025 citing the worsening security situation in the country. He has reportedly said one would be held after a population census in October. Washington has said there is no chance of free and fair elections so long as the junta is in power.
Whether it would be able to do so is in doubt, particularly with ethnic armed factions in northern Shan State potentially on the cusp of their most significant victory since the coup. The military regime is struggling to retain control of Lashio, the state’s capital and a key center of trade with China. And it has already lost much of Rakhine State to a group known as the Arakan Army.
“If Lashio falls, then this is going to galvanize the rest of the country,” said Morgan Michaels, a research fellow for Southeast Asian politics and foreign policy at the International Institute for Strategic Studies. “It’s going to be a huge morale boost. And then you could see the fighting accelerate on other fronts again.”
Myanmar has been struggling to shore up its crumbling economy since the military seized power. Its growth is projected to stay weak in the current fiscal year as high living costs, a weakening local currency and a lack of dollars drag on the economy, the World Bank said in a report last month.
The mounting casualties along the border have seen China playing a bigger role in the conflict, including as a mediator between the warring factions in the north. Deputy junta chief Soe Win led a delegation to Qingdao earlier this month to discuss the security situation, while Beijing has since invited the representatives of four major political parties for a eight-day trip in late July.
Since seizing control of the government more than three years ago and imprisoning civilian leader and pro-democracy icon Aung San Suu Kyi, the military has been repeatedly hit by US and European sanctions in a bid to end the violence that has killed thousands.
The “military regime’s extension of the state of emergency is at odds with the aspirations of the people of Burma, including their continued strong opposition to military rule,” US State Department spokesman Matthew Miller said on Wednesday. “The military’s actions have only prolonged the crisis, which has internally displaced over three million people, with thousands more seeking protection in neighboring countries, and plunged millions into poverty.”
(Updates with US State Department’s reaction in final paragraph)
©2024 Bloomberg L.P.