(Bloomberg) -- Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda avoided giving a clear signal that he might raise interest rates next month by reiterating the need to keep monitoring risks for the economy in comments that nudged down the yen.
“The timing and pace of adjusting the degree of monetary accommodation will depend on developments in economic activity and prices as well as financial conditions going forward,” Ueda said in a speech at a business conference in Tokyo on Wednesday.
“The bank needs to pay due attention to various risk factors at home and abroad, and to examine how these factors will affect the outlook and risks for Japan’s economic activity and prices and the likelihood of realizing the outlook,” he said.
The speech comes after Ueda indicated last week that the BOJ may wait longer before raising rates, a view that surprised investors expecting a January move if the bank didn’t act at its December meeting. The policy stance of President-elect Donald Trump was among the uncertain factors cited by Ueda at the time. The governor’s unexpected dovishness triggered a slide in the yen and warnings from Japan’s finance ministry about one-sided and speculative currency movements.
Ueda on Wednesday continued in that vein. He appeared to want to keep his options open by noting the need to keep rates low to support the economy while at the same time flagging the risk of maintaining rates at low levels for too long.
“Governor Ueda is keeping his hands free as there are lots of uncertainties including the yen and Trump,” said Masato Koike, senior economist at Sompo Institute Plus. “Today’s speech keeps open the chance of a January rate hike but the likelihood of a March move is probably higher. It’s just too early to commit to a hike or no hike in January.”
The yen weakened to as much as 157.37 against the dollar following his comments in Tokyo from around 157.13 at the start of his speech. The move suggested a further recalibration toward a later rate hike among market participants.
Still, the speed of the weakening suggested little immediate chance of the yen breaking the five-month low of 157.93 touched last week, or the kind of slide that might trigger further currency intervention by Japan.
As Japan transitions toward achieving stable 2% inflation, the BOJ will maintain easy financial conditions by keeping the rate lower than the neutral level to firmly support the economy, Ueda said. “We have to make sure that Japan’s economy will not return to a deflationary or low-inflation environment,” he said.
The BOJ left its benchmark interest rate at 0.25% at its December policy meeting. In Wednesday’s speech, Ueda said he has a lot to monitor by indicating he wants to see more data to gauge momentum in annual spring wage talks and the outlook for the US economy.
“With regard to Japan’s economy, a key issue in the short run is how the annual spring labor-management wage negotiations will develop,” Ueda said.
The BOJ hiked interest rates in March for the first time in 17 years just a matter of days after the release of initial tally of results of this year’s annual pay negotiations between the nation’s biggest union federation and employers.
Still, some economists and policymakers already feel the nation is ready for its next rate hike. Japan’s inflation has stayed at or above BOJ’s target for two and a half years and the economy has continued a moderate recovery. Ahead of a policy meeting last week, some 86% of BOJ watchers said economic conditions justified a rate hike at the gathering.
Naoki Tamura, a leading hawkish member of BOJ’s policy board, suggested raising the rate last week. He cited the economy staying on track with BOJ projections and increasing upside risks.
Raising rates might also relieve some pressure from the yen, which is approaching levels that saw a government intervention in markets earlier in the year. Tokyo has spent close to $100 billion propping up the currency so far in 2024.
Concern over Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s minority government securing support for an annual budget may also be among the factors making policymakers at the central bank cautious about raising rates for now. A small opposition party that Ishiba hopes will support the ruling party’s budget plans has yet to fully back the initial proposals.
WATCH: Why the Japanese Yen Is So Volatile (August 23)
Traders see a 46% chance of a rate hike in January as of Wednesday with about an 82% chance of a move by March, according to the latest overnight-indexed-swap rates.
This is Ueda’s last public speech scheduled in 2024. The BOJ board meets again to deliver a next policy decision on Jan. 24.
“I still think the odds are that the BOJ will hike rates in January,” said Kei Okamura, portfolio manager at Neuberger Berman. “But clearly some investors are beginning to price in the chances of no rate hike as well.”
--With assistance from Umesh Desai.
(Adds more comments from Ueda, market moves)
©2024 Bloomberg L.P.