(Bloomberg) -- China’s one-year bond yields broke below levels last seen in the global financial crisis to the lowest in more than two decades, driven by bets on aggressive policy easing and demand for haven assets.
The yield on one-year government debt plunged 17 basis points Friday to 0.85%, the lowest since 2003, just a few hours after sliding below the psychological barrier of 1%. Benchmark 10-year bonds also rallied, with yields having now fallen on all except four days this month.
The stars seem to be aligned for this year’s rally to extend well into 2025. The current drivers include speculation China will enact deep interest-rate cuts soon to bolster its flagging economy amid the threat of increased US tariffs. The prolonged weakness in stock and property markets is also fueling demand for the safety of sovereign debt.
The current bond rally reflects “prevailing expectations for PBOC’s strong easing next year amid the moderately loose policy and the shortage of high-quality fixed-income assets,” said Ken Cheung, chief Asian foreign-exchange strategist at Mizuho Bank Ltd. in Hong Kong. “Such developments could intensify concerns over US-China monetary policy divergence, and reinforce yuan depreciation pressure.”
Shorter-maturity debt has become a sweet spot in recent days due to speculation the People’s Bank of China will intervene to cool a rally in longer-dated securities. Earlier this week, policymakers pushed back against the market frenzy by delivering a warning on risks in the rates market.
The PBOC itself though may be one of the biggest buyers of shorter debt. In August, the central bank purchased front-end bonds and sold longer-maturity ones to limit a bull run in the latter and steepen the yield curve. In the four months through November, Beijing purchased a net 700 billion yuan ($95.9 billion) of bonds, according to official data.
Looks ‘Extreme’
While the PBOC’s operations may have contributed to the front-end rally, the slide in yields “looks quite extreme,” said Zhaopeng Xing, a senior strategist at Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. That’s because yields have fallen below the level of about 1.1% paid by banks for deposits that are often used to buy bonds, he said.
One side effect of the bond rally is that it’s piling further pressure on the yuan, which is already being hurt by gains in the dollar due to the Federal Reserve’s hawkish pivot. China’s currency was little changed at around 7.3 per dollar Friday, after sliding to a more than one-year low in the previous session.
Signs of further capital outflows, spurred by concerns about yuan weakness, are already emerging. China suffered a record fund exit last month under the category of securities investment, according to official data released this week.
Some analysts at least are warning the bond rally may be nearing its end.
A pickup in economic growth, along with a shift in consumer savings behavior and a more cautious-than-expected PBOC policy, may turn the bond bull run into a rout next year, said Adam Wolfe, an emerging markets economist at Absolute Strategy Research in London. “China’s bond market likely overstates the easing that’s expected.”
The decline in yields is spurring debate about whether China’s economy is heading toward a recession. There’s some speculation interest rates may fall to zero if government efforts to bolster consumption and property demand continue to fall short.
The nation’s longer-maturity yields dropped below their Japanese counterparts last month in a sign investors are positioning for so-called Japanification of the world’s second-biggest economy.
Many analysts predict further gains for China’s bonds. Standard Chartered Bank, Tianfeng Securities and Zheshang Securities are among those that predict 10-year yields will drop to as low as 1.5% or 1.6% by the end of 2025. The yield slipped five basis points Friday to 1.70%.
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