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Europe Stock Futures Echo Asia Dip Before PCE Data: Markets Wrap

By Richard Henderson
Visitors look at screens at the Korea Exchange (KRX) headquarters in Seoul, South Korea, on Wednesday, Dec. 4, 2024. South Korea's currency recovered while its stocks fell in early trading Wednesday after President Yook Suk Yeol briefly declared martial law amid a political tussle, before moving to rescind the decree just hours later. Photographer: Tina Hsu/Bloomberg (Tina Hsu/Bloomberg)

(Bloomberg) -- European stock futures point to a weak start after another dismal session in Asia, with investors awaiting the release of the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge for fresh clues about its policy outlook.

Euro Stoxx 50 contracts fell 0.8% and a gauge of Asian shares is set to drop for a sixth straight session, its longest losing run since April. Stocks fell in Australia, Japan and South Korea. China’s one-year bond yield slumped to 1% for the first time since the global financial crisis, as traders ramped up bets on monetary easing.

Market attention is now on the US personal consumption expenditures data for November, due later Friday. This last major piece of data for the year follows the Fed’s latest hawkish policy pivot, and is weighing on US stock index futures. 

Thursday’s US data, which showed faster-than-expected economic growth and robust consumer spending, has further weakened the case for imminent rate cuts. Treasuries were steady after the 10-year yield rose Thursday to 4.57%, a level last seen in May. A Bloomberg dollar index hovered around 2022 highs. 

“The good news are bad news mantra has resurfaced, with stronger US economic data fueling another climb in US Treasury yields and posing a hurdle for risk sentiment,” said Jun Rong Yeap, a market strategist for IG Asia Pte in Singapore. “Looking ahead, a pullback in 10-year yields below the 4.50% level may be necessary to provide near-term market relief, with the upcoming US PCE data likely to play a pivotal role in setting its direction.”

Concerns are also growing about the implications of the Republican-led House rejecting a temporary funding plan backed by President-elect Donald Trump on Thursday, with a US government shutdown looming in just over 24 hours.

The development can “inevitably increase the market volatility in the short term, especially after Fed’s hawkish pivot two days ago,” Jasmine Duan, senior investment strategist at RBC Wealth Management Asia, said in a Bloomberg TV interview. Investors face risks from “potentially more sticky inflation and also the debt issue in the US,” she said, adding it may not be surprising to see a 5% to 10% decline in US equities in the near term. 

Government funding will lapse Friday night without congressional action. The new deal includes aid for disaster victims and US farmers, but has been met with opposition from some Republicans and Democrats, who argue it doesn’t include sufficient spending cuts. The Trump-backed plan would set March 14 as the new funding deadline.

“Investors may not be concerned so much about what will inevitably be a partial shutdown that is subsequently barely visible in key economic data but by what this episode portends about the way Congress functions - or doesn’t - in 2025,” said Sean Callow, a senior currency analyst at Intouch Capital Markets in Sydney.

Hawkish Pivot

In Asia, the yen erased losses after Japan’s key inflation gauge strengthened for the first time in three months and Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato warned against currency speculation.

The cautious trading in the US on Thursday indicated investors are still digesting the Fed’s scaled rate cut expectations for 2025. The swaps market is now implying fewer than two quarter-point reductions for the entirety of 2025, even less than what was implied in the Fed’s so-called dot plot on Wednesday.

“The hawkish pivot has raised concerns about tighter monetary policy and its potential impact on economic growth and corporate earnings,” said Manish Bhargava, chief executive officer at Straits Investment Management in Singapore. 

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Bitcon slid for a third day, extending its slide from a record high earlier this week. In commodities, oil declined for a second day, extending a weekly fall, as a strengthening US dollar pressured prices. Gold advanced.

Key events this week: 

  • China loan prime rates, Friday
  • Eurozone consumer confidence, Friday
  • US personal income, spending & PCE inflation, Friday

Some of the main moves in markets:

Stocks

  • S&P 500 futures fell 0.2% as of 6:30 a.m. London time
  • S&P/ASX 200 futures fell 1.2%
  • Japan’s Topix fell 0.4%
  • Hong Kong’s Hang Seng was little changed
  • The Shanghai Composite fell 0.1%
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures fell 0.8%
  • Nasdaq 100 futures fell 0.5%

Currencies

  • The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed
  • The euro was little changed at $1.0365
  • The Japanese yen rose 0.4% to 156.88 per dollar
  • The offshore yuan was little changed at 7.3067 per dollar
  • The Australian dollar was little changed at $0.6235
  • The British pound was little changed at $1.2492

Cryptocurrencies

  • Bitcoin fell 0.7% to $96,686.67
  • Ether fell 1.5% to $3,366.23

Bonds

  • The yield on 10-year Treasuries was little changed at 4.55%
  • Australia’s 10-year yield advanced eight basis points to 4.49%

Commodities

  • West Texas Intermediate crude fell 0.3% to $69.15 a barrel
  • Spot gold rose 0.4% to $2,603.41 an ounce

This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.

--With assistance from Winnie Hsu, Georgina McKay and Matthew Burgess.

©2024 Bloomberg L.P.