(Bloomberg) -- The Philippine central bank is widely expected to deliver its third interest rate cut this year with inflation under control.
Most of the 25 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg predict the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas will reduce its overnight target reverse repurchase rate by 25 basis points to 5.75% on Thursday. One economist projected a 50-basis point reduction and another sees the rate unchanged at 6%.
BSP Governor Eli Remolona last month said the central bank is still on an easing cycle, although the door remains open for a pause.
The central bank has reduced its key rate by a total 50 basis points since August after ending its most aggressive tightening campaign in two decades that had brought borrowing costs to a 17-year high.
“We expect BSP to continue to reduce its monetary tightening with another 25 (basis point) rate cut, given that recent inflation and its current projected path are well within the policy target,” Citigroup Inc. economists including Nalin Chutchotitham said in a research note.
The recent price gains remain consistent with the central bank’s assessment that it will move closer to the lower end of its 2%-4% target range and reflects easing supply pressures for key food items including rice.
Here are key things to watch at the briefing in Manila at 3 p.m.:
Inflation Expectations
Headline inflation has quickened since the previous meeting and has room to accelerate amid growing consumer demand. But the price increases have stayed at the lower end of the central bank’s target range, giving monetary authorities room to continue cutting interest rates.
BSP will announce its updated inflation forecasts for this year through 2026.
Economic Growth
As economic growth slowed more than expected last quarter, in part due to a flurry of storms that shuttered offices and ravaged crops, policymakers may be swayed into slashing rates further.
A Philippine government panel has cut this year’s growth projection to 6%-6.5% from a prior assumption of 6%-7%. It also widened its projected growth range for next year, citing uncertainties over US President-elect Donald Trump’s pledge for more tariffs.
The central bank may sustain its easing cycle into next year, with Metropolitan Bank and Trust Co. analysts Maria Kaila Balite and Ezra Vidar estimating three rate cuts in 2025.
Peso, Fed
The peso has slid 6% against the dollar and is among the worst-performing Asian currencies this year, though its decline has been capped at the record-low 59. The central bank chief has said he’s comfortable with the recent levels of the peso and that monetary authorities have intervened in the foreign-exchange market in “small amounts.”
The Federal Reserve is also expected to cut interest rate by 25 basis points this week, which the Philippines will likely track.
“BSP’s policy rate is more than 100 bps above neutral, which is likely to be seen as sufficiently tight to keep inflation in check, even with another 25-bps cut,” Tamara Henderson, an economist at Bloomberg Economics, wrote in a note.
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