(Bloomberg) -- China’s home-price declines eased for a third month in November, suggesting values are beginning to stabilize as policymakers step up efforts to end the property slump.
New-home prices in 70 cities, excluding state-subsidized housing, dropped 0.2% from October, the smallest decrease in 17 months, National Bureau of Statistics figures showed Monday. Values of used homes fell 0.35%, the least since May 2023.
Separate official figures showed home sales picked up, while real estate investment continued to decline. China’s housing downturn has weighed on Asia’s largest economy for more than three years, prompting authorities to add measures in recent months to revive demand and tackle excess supply.
“The recovery is still fragile and not broad-based,” said Raymond Cheng, head of China property research at CGS International Securities Hong Kong. “Property markets in small cities are still very challenging with high inventory levels.”
More Figures:
- Used-home prices rose in 10 cities, compared with eight in October and none in September. The biggest gain was seen in the capital, Beijing, which saw prices up 0.9%.
- From a year earlier, new-home prices fell 6.1%, easing from October’s 6.2% drop. Existing-home prices slid 8.5%, less than 8.9% a month earlier.
- Residential sales climbed 4.5% in November from a year earlier, the first increase this year, according to Bloomberg calculations based on official data.
- Developers remained pessimistic on the market outlook, with investment plunging 10.4% in the first 11 months.
Top officials led by President Xi Jinping last week vowed to stabilize the property market next year in an announcement following the two-day Central Economic Work Conference. A housing ministry official reiterated the pledge on Saturday.
But they provided no incremental details, unlike in previous policy communications, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc. analysts including Lisheng Wang.
A Bloomberg Intelligence gauge of Chinese property developer shares fell as much as 1.2% on Monday morning.
The improvement in home sales stands in contrast with private data released earlier. Transactions by the 100 biggest real estate companies shrank 6.9% in November from a year ago, reversing a brief gain in October, China Real Estate Investment Corp. figures showed.
More recently, property sales growth has cooled a bit in the first half of December, according to data tracked by UBS Group AG.
Steadying residential sales and prices “will take time and the expected US tariff hike would bring fresh downward pressure,” UBS economists including Wang Tao wrote in a recent note. The bank now expects sales to stabilize in the first half of 2026, with declines narrowing to 5-10% next year.
“The wave of stimulus measures from September could be producing a short-lived recovery instead of a sustainable one, and that suggests the need for more policy support going into 2025,” said Kristy Hung, a Bloomberg Intelligence analyst. “We are still expecting a drop in new home sales volume as well as prices.”
Prices of new homes will fall another 5% next year, as measured by the official statistics bureau, Fitch Ratings said earlier.
China’s economic outlook for next year and beyond is increasingly uncertain, even though the work conference reaffirmed that it’s on track to hit this year’s official growth target of around 5%. Many economists expect the government to set a similar goal for 2025. Separate data on Monday showed a recovery in domestic demand has remained sluggish, with retail sales growth unexpectedly weakening.
(Updates with more data details, comments from the fifth paragraph.)
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