(Bloomberg) -- Thailand’s inflation remained below the central bank’s target range for a sixth straight month, raising the pressure for the monetary authority to reduce borrowing costs.
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The consumer price index rose 0.95% in November, according to data released by the Commerce Ministry on Wednesday. The reading missed analysts expectation for a 1.14% gain. Inflation had been below the lower end of the Bank of Thailand’s 1% to 3% target band since May.
Core inflation stood at 0.8%, little changed from October, while consumer prices eased 0.13% month-on-month in November, the ministry said.
The still-weak inflation pace adds to government pressure for the BOT to continue cutting rates after a surprise easing in October. Both have been sparring for months over how best to jumpstart Southeast Asia’s second-largest economy after about a decade of lackluster growth. Central bank officials are scheduled to meet on Dec. 18 to decide on the key rate.
BOT Governor Sethaput Suthiwartnarueput said earlier this week that the central bank will retain a flexible policy approach to cope with high uncertainties and unintended consequences facing the global economy next year. Finance Minister Pichai Chunhavajira on Tuesday cited the low inflation in his push for a further easing in the key interest rate.
Nomura Holdings Inc. expects BOT to cut rate by 25 basis points this month as inflation continues to undershoot the central bank’s target and non-performing loans rise amid a a decline in loan growth. A cut in December would still keep the rate within BOT’s estimate of a neutral range, economists Charnon Boonnuch and Euben Paracuelles wrote in a note.
BOT may lower borrowing costs again in April to account for subdued inflation and the negative loop between NPLs and economic growth, according to Nomura. Sethaput struck a neutral tone by referring to a robust policy and “this is a departure from his usually hawkish stance, which we think implies the door is still open to another recalibration of the neutral policy rate,” the economists wrote.
Still, there have been some moves by the central bank and government to accommodate one another. The government agreed to BOT’s demand to retain the inflation target for another year on condition that the central bank carries out measures to spur price gains to a midpoint of 2%.
Inflation may accelerate to 1.2%-1.3% this month due to the impact of floods in some parts of Thailand, Poonpong Naiyanapakorn, director general of the Trade Policy and Strategy Office, said at a briefing.
(Updates with Nomura comments from sixth paragraph.)
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