(Bloomberg) -- South Korea’s currency recovered while its stocks fell Wednesday, as investors braced for prolonged political uncertainties following a brief decree of martial law by President Yoon Suk Yeol.
The benchmark Kospi closed 1.4% lower, while a gauge of equity volatility climbed by the most in three weeks. The won gained 1.2% to 1,410.56 per dollar, to erase most of its overnight loss. Credit default swaps for South Korean government debt widened 2.75 basis points, according to traders, poised for the biggest increase since early August, data compiled by Bloomberg show.
Yoon sparked chaos with the late Tuesday decree, sending the won and South Korea-related exchange-traded funds sharply lower overnight. While extreme jitters dissipated as financial authorities swiftly vowed to provide “unlimited liquidity,” damage has been done to investor perception of South Korea’s financial markets. It also poses a major setback for government efforts including the “Corporate Value-Up” program, which aims to erase the equity discount by making company boards more accountable to shareholders.
“This just adds to the disappointing track record for the government, and is not in line with the expectations investors have for a developed market,” said Joohee An, chief investment officer at Mirae Asset Global Investments Co. in Hong Kong. “The latest drama is not going to help the Korea market rerate when it’s already trading at steep discounts versus other Asian markets.”
Yoon’s shocking order was a high-stakes move he claimed would prevent the main opposition Democratic Party from trying to paralyze his administration amid a rift that’s now set to deepen markedly. The Democratic Party submitted a motion calling for the impeachment of Yoon over the martial law order.
The political turmoil doesn’t bode well for nation’s ongoing push for upgrades to developed market status in global indexes. It’s yet another blow to the stock market after Yoon’s administration shocked the global investment community with a sudden prohibition of short-selling about a year ago.
Efforts by the Yoon administration to reduce the “Korea Discount” — persistent undervaluation of the nation’s stocks — have had little impact. The Kospi trades at about 0.8 times one-year forward estimated book value, while the MSCI World Index trades at 2.9 times, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
Banks were among the worst hit in Wednesday’s stock selloff, along with companies seen as related to Yoon policies including nuclear energy and corporate reform. Shares of the nation’s largest company Samsung Electronics Co. were the biggest drag on the Kospi, falling 0.9%. Retail investors instead piled into meme stocks seen as related to opposition party leader Lee Jae-myung.
South Korea’s top financial regulator Kim Byoung-hwan said after an emergency meeting that authorities will take “all possible measures” to ensure the stability of markets. A 10 trillion won ($7 billion) stock market stabilization fund is ready to be deployed immediately if needed, he said.
Bank of Korea’s monetary board announced steps to increase short-term liquidity and also pledged measures in the event of currency volatility. Foreign-exchange liquidity is showing no particularly unusual signs after the brief episode of martial law, said Yoon Kyoungsoo, director general of the central bank’s international department, at a briefing in Seoul.
Some traders were optimistic that a quick resolution to the standoff could bring a rebound. The incident stirred memories of the political turmoil in 2016-2017 that concluded with the first-ever impeachment of a sitting South Korean president. The Kospi posted a 6% gain in about three months leading up to the impeachment decision by the court in March 2017.
“Markets will prefer a quick resolution to the stand-off and for political stability to return,” said Jun Rong Yeap, a market strategist at IG Asia Pte Ltd. in Singapore. Given Yoon’s low public ratings and difficulties enacting policies, “we may see some calm gradually return if more clarity were to be presented.”
Korean assets have been among the world’s worst performers amid China’s economic malaise and Donald Trump’s threats of sweeping trade tariffs after his US election win. The won has slumped around 9% against the dollar this year, the worst performer among Asian currencies, while the Kospi has dropped more than 7%.
“Yoon’s political career appears to be nearing its end,” said Jung In Yun, chief executive at Fibonacci Asset Management Global Pte. “Short term, this will be a buy opportunity. Long-term, the Korea Discount problems will persist and act as a headwind for growth.”
--With assistance from Winnie Hsu, Abhishek Vishnoi, Cecile Vannucci, John Cheng, Ameya Karve and Shinhye Kang.
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