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China Skips Politburo Readout as Investors Await Stimulus Clues

(Bloomberg analysis based on gove)

(Bloomberg) -- The Communist Party’s elite decision-making body skipped releasing a readout for its regular November meeting, a rare omission that comes as investors are hungry for any signs of more stimulus.

The 24-man Politburo that President Xi Jinping leads appeared to have missed its huddle last month, the first time the group failed to publicly convene since May 2023. China’s top leader has been disrupting the party’s political calendar, most recently holding the Third Plenum on major reform about a year later than expected. 

Investors are now turning their attention to this month’s Politburo assembly — one of three held annually where economy policy is the top agenda item. While such huddles normally take place at the end of each month, in December the meeting is brought forward to set up the Central Economic Work Conference.

That conclave usually convened in mid-December draws cadres from major government organs, provinces and state-owned enterprises to Beijing, and its readout will be scoured for signs of policy support. Chinese stocks rallied last week, partly fueled by rumors the work conference will start earlier than expected and set a higher-than-usual deficit target for 2025. 

Since China’s most-powerful leader since Mao Zedong secured a precedent-defying third term in late 2022, the Politburo has skipped publishing a statement for four separate months — more than the three missed in the Chinese leader’s second term. That comes as officials increasingly restrict access to sensitive data — especially when it’s unflattering to the nation’s faltering economy.

While Politburo readouts tend to be formulaic, they provide a rare glimpse into the operations of the secretive body that gathers behind closed doors and publishes no schedules or agendas. Changes in tone and broad pledges can be enough to send stocks rallying or plunging. 

There is no public mandate for the Politburo to meet monthly, but it has done so for 90% of Xi’s decade-plus tenure, according to a Bloomberg News analysis of government statements. It’s unclear whether the Politburo failed to convene in November, or if the elite group discussed sensitive matters it didn’t want to reveal.

It’s also possible for state media to later release statements on the body’s activities. Sometimes the party releases transcripts of Xi’s remarks months, or even years, after the fact. The Politburo however, has never missed a readout from the April, July and December sessions focused on economic policy during Xi’s tenure. 

Investors are betting on more forceful measures from Beijing to bolster growth as the world’s No. 2 economy braces for the return of Donald Trump. The US president-elect recently threatened the so-called BRICS group of nations, to which China belongs, with a 100% tariff if they create a new currency to rival the US dollar.

Chinese policymakers have unleashed an array of steps since September to put a floor under the country’s growth slowdown, including rate cuts, more cash for banks and a $1.4 trillion program to steady the finances of local governments. Investors are also expecting another cut to the amount of cash banks must keep in the reserve in the coming weeks. 

--With assistance from Josh Xiao.

©2024 Bloomberg L.P.