(Bloomberg) -- China’s manufacturing activity expanded for a second straight month, according to a private survey, a further sign of stabilization after Beijing unleashed a stimulus package to shore up the economy.
The Caixin manufacturing purchasing managers index rose to 51.5 last month, the highest since June, according to a statement released by Caixin and S&P Global Monday. The expansion was much greater than the 50.6 forecast by economists and accelerated from 50.3 in October.
The finding showed Chinese exports have continued to power the $18 trillion economy’s uneven recovery, although US President-elect Donald Trump has threatened to impose tariffs that could decimate trade between the countries. Official measures of activity in November showed a slight pickup in the manufacturing sector, while a gauge of construction and services unexpectedly fell back to the 50-mark that separates contraction from expansion.
“Front-loading may continue to support manufacturing activities for a couple of months until tariff materializes, which could take place fairly quickly given the mechanism in place in the US,” said Michelle Lam, greater China economist at Societe Generale SA.
Customers’ stockpiling helped new orders in November to rise at the quickest pace since February last year, with output price inflation at a 13-month high, according to the Caixin poll. But employment remained in contraction for the third straight month, indicating the effect of stimulus has yet trickled down to the labor market.
“While the economic downturn appears to be bottoming out, it needs further consolidation,” Wang Zhe, senior economist at Caixin Insight Group, said in a statement accompanying the release. “The structural and cyclical pressures facing the economy are expected to continue.”
The PMI for Asia excluding China and Japan was little changed in October, while a measure of export orders improved by the most since May, another sign of front-loading across the region ahead of Trump’s vowed tariffs.
In China, domestic demand benefited from Beijing’s subsidies for buying household appliances, cars and equipment in a trade-in program, although economists say more policy support is needed to keep up the growth momentum.
“These plans are merely bringing forward demand, while property transactions are unlikely to improve materially unless the outlook for jobs, incomes and inflation brightens,” said Kelvin Lam, a China economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics.
What Bloomberg Economics Says...
For the sake of China’s economic recovery, we hope policymakers will take the surprisingly strong Caixin manufacturing PMI with a big grain of salt. We certainly do. The rebound in supply and demand suggested by the survey does not align with other signals from the official PMIs and high-frequency indicators we monitor.
— Chang Shu and David Qu
Read the full note here.
The Caixin results have been largely stronger than those from an official poll over the previous year as exports stayed strong. The two surveys cover different sample sizes, locations and business types, with the private poll focusing on small and export-oriented firms.
Export data published last month showed shipments in the first three quarters soared to the second-highest value on record, in a boom that put China on track for a record trade surplus that could reach almost $1 trillion this year.
In late September, China delivered forceful cuts to interest rates and unveiled measures to bolster the housing market. That’s led some analysts to raise their outlook for China’s growth in 2024, bringing the median forecast for this year’s growth to 4.8%, according to estimates compiled by Bloomberg.
--With assistance from Katia Dmitrieva.
(Updates with more comments)
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