(Bloomberg) -- China’s factory activity continued to expand in November, after a broad package of stimulus measures helped reverse months of contraction.
The official manufacturing purchasing managers’ index was 50.3, the National Bureau of Statistics said on Saturday, above the 50 mark that separates expansion and contraction. The median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg was for a gain to 50.2, from 50.1 in October.
The non-manufacturing measure of activity in construction and services slipped to 50 in November from the October reading of 50.2. That compares with a forecast of 50.3. The composite index was unchanged at 50.8.
China’s economy has been showing tentative signs of recovery since October after a raft of stimulus measures including interest-rate cuts were announced in late September. During a Politburo meeting then, the nation’s top leaders ramped up efforts to revive growth with pledges to support fiscal spending and stabilize the beleaguered property sector.
“The economy stabilized recently as fiscal and monetary policies eased after the Politburo meeting on Sept. 26,” said Zhang Zhiwei, chief economist with Pinpoint Asset Management. Nevertheless, the outlook for 2025 remains unclear given a looming trade war, which could delay corporate investment decisions, and uncertainty over future fiscal stimulus, he said.
China also faces new challenges with Donald Trump’s win in the US presidential election this month. His threat of steep tariffs on Chinese goods risks wreaking further havoc on China’s export sector, which already faces greater trade barriers from regions like the European Union.
In October, both official and private measures of factory activity exceeded analyst expectations, while home sales rose for the first time this year. Infrastructure investment was steady and the urban jobless rate fell in October to the lowest in four months.
What Bloomberg Economics Says...
“High-frequency indicators suggest momentum was largely unchanged in the manufacturing and service sectors. A small pickup that we expect in the manufacturing PMI reflects a seasonal tendency to rise following a holiday-led lull in October, not an economy that’s gearing up.”
— Chang Shu, chief Asia economist, and David Qu, economist.
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--With assistance from Tian Ying.
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