(Bloomberg) -- North Korean leader Kim Jong Un’s bet on Russia for economic support may end up backfiring if Donald Trump manages to end Vladimir Putin’s war in Ukraine, according to a study released by a South Korean government-affiliated think tank.
Moscow has emerged as a prominent supporter of Kim’s regime this year and the two nations have beefed up their economic and military exchanges. After supplying ammunitions to Russia, Pyongyang has in recent weeks dispatched troops to aid Moscow’s war in Ukraine, officials in Washington and Seoul have said. In return, Russia is providing money and helping North Korea increase its military capabilities.
The deepening alliance with Putin has given Kim an option to turn less to Beijing for diplomatic support. But Pyongyang is still heavily dependent on China for its economic needs, according to the study led by Lee Jongkyu, a senior researcher at the Korea Development Institute.
North Korea imports more than 900 different types of products, including trucks and medicine, from China, while it only buys roughly 150 items, such as oil and gas, from Russia. Investment from Russia has also proven choppy compared to that from China and tourism from Russia is unlikely to jump given most of it involves travel by air rather than land, he said.
“The current situation is the result of a match between the interests of Russia, which needs conventional arms and troops, and North Korea, which needs food, energy, and foreign currency,” Lee said in the monthly KDI publication, adding that this relationship is expected to be strengthened “as long as the war continues.”
“If this war ends in any form, as Trump has pledged, the needs of the two for each other may change.”
North Korea’s military industries may still benefit from cooperation with Russia, but the sector has limited spillover effects for the broader economy and may even interfere with the growth of other areas, he said.
“The ‘all-in’ approach to Russia in the North Korean economy appears to have high opportunity costs in terms of not only quantity but also quality,” he said.
North Korea’s true intent in cozying up to Russia may be more military than economic.
North Korea wants Russian support to procure modern technologies, that it has had trouble getting, to develop ballistic missiles, submarines and fighter jets, according to Lee Sang-joon, a Kookmin University professor who took part in the study.
That means if Trump’s efforts to end the war drag out, Kim will buy enough time to modernize North Korea’s arms industries while his troops would acquire considerable combat experience in Ukraine, the study said. Meanwhile, Russia could increase its hiring of North Korean workers to ease its labor shortage, according to the study.
Joanna Hosaniak, who has followed cross-border activity as deputy director general of the Citizens’ Alliance for North Korean Human Rights, said there’s “extremely big competition between China and Russia going on right now” to have economic sway over Pyongyang.
“Russia is exercising this influence through military production that is ongoing from North Korea,” she said Friday at a press conference in Seoul, while China is exerting this influence through other means.
“Both of these countries were crucial in establishment of the sanctions regime, but they are openly violating this sanctions regime.”
Putin said earlier this week his forces could strike key sites in the Ukrainian capital of Kyiv with ballistic missiles, indicating his willingness to continue the war. It remains to be seen how Trump would deal with Kim and his military support for Russia after he takes office in January.
Last week Kim said past talks with the US merely confirmed Washington’s “unchangeable” hostility toward Pyongyang, suggesting he has no interest at this point in any potential renewal of direct diplomacy with Trump.
--With assistance from Soo-Hyang Choi.
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