(Bloomberg) -- Tokyo inflation accelerated more than expected in November while other data showed the economy moving broadly in line with Bank of Japan projections, feeding into speculation over a possible December rate hike and bumping the yen.
Consumer prices excluding fresh food in the capital climbed 2.2% from a year earlier in November, picking up from 1.8% largely on a winding down of energy subsidies, according to the ministry of internal affairs Friday. Overall inflation sped up to 2.6%, as food prices also pushed up the gauge, also outpacing economist expectations.
Japan’s currency strengthened after the report from 151.34 against the dollar to as much as 150.01 as the outcome offered support for the view that the BOJ may hike rates again in December. Overnight swaps point to a 63% chance of the central bank moving at its next meeting.
Market expectations for the move have roughly doubled this month as Governor Kazuo Ueda has repeatedly said borrowing costs will be raised if the economy performs in line with the central bank’s view.
Separate reports on Friday showed the job market remained relatively tight, with the jobs to applicants ratio ticking up to 1.25 in October, and the jobless rate rising slightly to 2.5%.
“Overall, none of the economic data today stops the BOJ from mulling a rate hike,” said Taro Saito, head of economic research at NLI Research Institute. “If financial markets are calm, they could move in December.”
Friday’s Tokyo CPI data is the last government inflation report before the central bank makes a decision on its benchmark rate on Dec. 19. Last week Ueda said it’s not possible to predict the outcome of the meeting, hinting that the next meeting will involve a live discussion over whether to raise interest rates.
The fall in energy subsidies stems from a previous decision by former Prime Minister Fumio Kishida to phase out what was supposed to be a temporary measure. Still, Kishida’s successor Shigeru Ishiba has decided to reintroduce the measure from January. The impacts from subsidies tend to be reflected in inflation data with a lag.
There’s also some signs that underlying inflation remains strong beyond the impact from reduced subsidies. Food companies are planning a price increase of 3,933 products in 2025, 2.5 times this year’s initial plans, according to a Teikoku Databank report Friday.
What Bloomberg Economics Says...
“The consensus-beating pickup in Tokyo’s November inflation is the latest sign consumer price pressures continue to build in line with the Bank of Japan’s outlook. The hotter core reading reflected a rise in utility prices after energy subsidies were rolled back.”
Taro Kimura, economist
Click here to read the full report
The BOJ’s 0.25% policy rate is expected to change soon. More than 80% of economists surveyed by Bloomberg forecast another hike by January. The Tokyo CPI figures follow a range of recent economic data including GDP that have shown the economy is in a moderate recovery.
In other data released by the industry ministry Friday, industrial production rose 3.0% in October from a month earlier, while retail sales increased 0.1%. The state of consumption remains key for Japan’s economy, while production may face headwinds going ahead as countries brace for the impact from US President-elect Donald Trump’s tariffs.
Factory output is forecast to decrease 2.2% in November, and 0.5% in December. For the third quarter, production had already slipped 0.4% from the previous period.
Ishiba has already announced a stimulus package to shore up growth and shelter consumers from some of the impact of inflation, with an extra budget expected to be approved by the cabinet later Friday.
The package includes cash handouts for low-income households, the resumption of energy subsidies, and support for semiconductors and artificial intelligence.
“Japan’s economy is likely to continue a gradual recovery,” said NLI’s Saito. Still, “uncertainties from the global economy remain high.”
(Updates with economist comments, more details.)
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