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Tech Reprieve Lifts Stocks, French Crisis Swirls: Markets Wrap

By Richard Henderson
Bill Dudley, former New York Fed President, Bloomberg Opinion columnist, and Bloomberg Economics senior advisor, discusses the challenge US debt can pose for Scott Bessent at the US Treasury, the potential impact on the Federal Reserve of tariffs vowed by President-elect Donald Trump, and why a shadow Fed Chair would be an “absolute terrible idea.” His opinions are his own.

(Bloomberg) -- European stocks snapped two days of declines, with technology leading the advance amid hopes that US curbs on chip equipment sales to China may prove lighter than feared.

The US is considering measures on sales of semiconductor equipment and AI memory chips to China that would stop short of stricter limits previously under discussion, Bloomberg News reported. The Stoxx 600 index rose 0.4%, boosted by semiconductor-linked stocks including ASML Holding NV, VAT Group AG and Aixtron SE.   

The Brazilian real tumbled to a record low after the government’s plan to cut spending disappointed. The Ibovespa index of Brazilian stocks declined 2.4%, its worst trading day since May last year. US equity futures ticked higher, with no cash trading later due to the Thanksgiving holiday. Trading in Treasuries is shut. 

Political turmoil in France weighed on the nation’s stocks and bonds. The yields on benchmark French bonds traded near 3%, briefly on par with those of Greece for the first time on record. The nation’s stocks are set for their worst under-performance against European peers since 2010 as a budget standoff threatens to topple the government.

While French bonds rallied after Finance Minister Antoine Armand said he is prepared to make concessions on the 2025 budget, that did little to shore up months of underperformance. 

“The problem with France is it’s one of the largest issuers in Europe and now you’ve got a bit of a buyers’ strike,” Jordan Rochester, head of macro strategy at Mizuho International, said in an interview with Bloomberg TV. “Our head of EGB trading was just in France recently talking to investors, and their interest in buying OATs was extremely low. You’ve got other options, Italy and Spain, and their data’s actually fantastic.”

On the monetary policy front, a pick-up in the Federal Reserve’s preferred gauge of underlying inflation is reinforcing the case for policymakers to proceed gradually with further interest-rate cuts. Traders are also weighing the expected impact of Donald Trump’s administration picks, with the US president-elect’s policies expected to reinforce price pressures.

“When you look at PCE coming out yesterday, core services came out quite strong,” said Kevin Thozet, a member of the investment committee at Carmignac. “We are not heading for double-digit inflation but the disinflationary trend is stalling. The result of the US elections could prolong this cycle with tax cuts.” 

The yen weakened to moderate Wednesday’s gain of more than 1% against the greenback which drove it to the strongest since late October. The move came amid views that the Bank of Japan may raise interest rates at its December meeting. 

The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was steady but remains on course to break an eight-week winning streak, as traders begin to look past the threat of tariffs that’s boosted the greenback since Trump’s victory. Bitcoin traded below $96,000 after a rally on Wednesday.

In the credit market, bond issuers notched €1.705 trillion ($1.8 trillion) of sales in Europe so far in 2024, passing the high-water mark previously set in 2020, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. 

Among individual stock movers, Direct Line Insurance Group Plc shares surged as much as 45% after the insurer rejected a £3.3 billion ($4.2 billion) takeover bid from Aviva Plc, the second suitor it’s rebuffed this year.

Key events this week:

  • US Thanksgiving holiday. Markets closed, Thursday
  • Eurozone CPI, Friday
  • ECB releases consumer expectations survey for October, Friday
  • “Black Friday,” the traditional start of the US holiday shopping rush

Some of the main moves in markets:

Stocks

  • S&P 500 futures rose 0.2% as of 4:23 p.m. New York time
  • Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.3%
  • The MSCI World Index was little changed
  • Nasdaq 100 futures rose 0.4%
  • The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 0.2%
  • The MSCI Emerging Markets Index fell 0.8%, more than any closing loss since Nov. 14
  • Ibovespa Brasil Sao Paulo Stock Exchange Index fell 2.4%, more than any closing loss in about 19 months
  • S&P/BMV IPC rose 0.3%, more than any closing gain since Nov. 22

Currencies

  • The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed
  • The euro was little changed at $1.0556
  • The British pound was little changed at $1.2690
  • The Japanese yen slipped 0.3%, more than any closing loss since Nov. 20
  • The offshore yuan was little changed at 7.2500 per dollar
  • The Mexican peso surged 0.7%, more than any closing gain since Nov. 7
  • The Brazilian real weakened 1.3% to a record low

Cryptocurrencies

  • Bitcoin fell 1.4% to $95,088.01
  • Ether fell 1.8% to $3,572.90

Bonds

  • The yield on 10-year Treasuries was little changed at 4.26%
  • Germany’s 10-year yield declined three basis points to 2.13%
  • Britain’s 10-year yield declined two basis points to 4.28%

Commodities

  • West Texas Intermediate crude rose 0.2% to $68.88 a barrel
  • Spot gold was little changed

This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.

--With assistance from Michael Msika and Sebastian Boyd.

©2024 Bloomberg L.P.