(Bloomberg) -- Chinese President Xi Jinping has devoted billions of dollars to his aim of transforming the military into a modern force by 2027. His government has also launched sweeping purges in the upper echelons of the People’s Liberation Army in response to what US intelligence believes to be widespread corruption undermining Xi’s ambitions. A major concern for Beijing appears to be graft that has eroded the quality of the weapons and capabilities of units such as the Rocket Force, which oversees the country’s nuclear arsenal and would be instrumental should Beijing invade Taiwan.
Who has been purged?
Unlike other parts of the Chinese system, the military doesn’t announce its corruption investigations, so it’s difficult to determine the extent of the purges. But there are clues from the removal of officials that have been revealed to the public.
From about mid-2023 until the start of 2024, the government abruptly unseated at least 16 senior military figures — including former Defense Minister Li Shangfu, the highest-level military leader to be ousted since 2017. At least five were linked to the secretive rocket force that Xi revamped in 2015, and at least two were from the equipment department in charge of arming the military. In June, the ruling Communist Party expelled Li and another former defense ministers on corruption charges. Both men took bribes, failed to cooperate with investigations and set a bad example, according to state media outlets that closely guard what China releases to the outside world.
China is also investigating its current defense minister for corruption, the Financial Times reported in late November. Admiral Dong Jun is facing the inquiry as part of a broader probe into graft, the newspaper reported, citing current and former US officials familiar with the situation that it did not name. The defense minister’s main job is to lead military diplomacy with other countries, rather than play a direct role commanding the nation’s armed forces.
Who is conducting the graft crackdown?
Corruption probes are being conducted by the Central Military Commission’s team of graft busters. These watchdogs investigate and report it up to the CMC, which is chaired by Xi himself and is the top decision-making body of the army. Apart from Xi, there are two vice chairmen who serve as the CMC’s military leaders and three other members in charge of items such as political work and discipline. This small group forms “the nucleus of military operations and oversight in China,” according to an Asia Society Policy Institute analysis.
The CMC is in charge of the administration of the armed forces and its functions include strategic planning, audits and political education. It’s one of the most powerful institutions in the country, overseeing military strategy.
What do we know about all these corruption allegations?
Officially, not all that much. Besides the case of the two former defense ministers that has been formally wrapped up, China hasn’t revealed the details for the other ousters, typically referring to offenses as “severe violations of discipline and law” — party-speak for corruption.
This is because the Chinese Communist Party does not reveal information that could damage its rule or tarnish the country’s image of having powerful fighting forces. Much of the information on the reasons for purges comes from intelligence officials in places such as the US.
What is Rocket Force and what are its troubles?
When Xi reorganized the military in 2015 — axing 300,000 personnel to streamline operations — he rechristened the Second Artillery the Rocket Force, elevating it to the same status as the army, navy and air force.
The missile unit has responsibility for China’s nuclear deterrent and is integral to the nation’s nuclear buildup. The US Defense Intelligence Agency said in 2024 that China is building out its arsenal far more quickly than previously forecast, with a goal of having at least 1,000 nuclear warheads by 2030, up from 500. By contrast, the US currently has about 3,750 warheads.
The Rocket Force is also responsible for conventional missiles. If Xi decided to invade Taiwan — the self-ruled island he’s said China needs to control by force if necessary — the PLA’s missile command would play a crucial role in an aerial assault. When then-US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi visited Taipei in August 2023, China fired 11 ballistic missiles during military drills protesting her trip, including several that passed over the island.
But the corruption inside the Rocket Force and throughout the nation’s defense industrial base is so extensive that US officials believe Xi is less likely to contemplate major military action in the coming years, Bloomberg News reported in January, according to people familiar with the assessments. The US evaluation cited several examples of the impact of graft, including missiles filled with water instead of fuel and vast fields of missile silos in western China with lids that don’t function in a way that would allow the missiles to launch effectively, one of the people said.
What has been happening in other parts of the military?
In April, China ordered what amounts to the biggest reorganization of its military since 2015 — replacing the Strategic Support Force with three new branches to each focus on information support, aerospace and cyberwarfare.
The military in June amended its audit rules to step up scrutiny of its budget, resources and assets, in its first revision since 2016.
In July, the Communist Party called for changes to the military’s weapons procurement system and an acceleration of the development of strategic deterrence — which typically refers to nuclear weapons and other emerging technologies.
What are Xi’s military ambitions?
Xi has vowed to transform the PLA into a world-class military power by mid-century. With more than 2.1 million active-duty troops, it has the world’s largest armed forces. It has more than 400 ships and 3,100 aircraft, according to Pentagon assessments, giving it the world’s biggest navy and the third-largest aviation force.
The latest development from China is the unveiling of its J-35 stealth fighter jet at the Zhuhai air show in November, a rival of the US F-35.
But the corruption concerns raised questions about the quality of the fighting forces and the effectiveness of the weapons on which the state has spent heavily. And while China has made rapid progress in military hardware, building everything from aircraft carriers to hypersonic missiles, its ability to translate that into effective combat operations remains a major concern — especially if any fighting has to be sustained.
--With assistance from Peter Martin.
©2024 Bloomberg L.P.