(Bloomberg) -- The Shinawatra clan that has dominated Thailand’s politics for the past two decades made a return to power in August — and it didn’t take long for opponents to emerge with moves to oust it from government. Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra runs an uneasy coalition that is pressing ahead with cash stimulus worth billions of dollars to bolster the economy, which risks adding to the country’s pile of debt. The prime minister, her billionaire father Thaksin Shinawatra who used be Thailand’s premier, and their family-backed political party have so-far fended off one complaint filed in court. But their opponents show no signs of backing down and the Election Commission has been probing Thaksin’s alleged influence over the ruling party. Investor uncertainty lingers as the drama unfolds in Southeast Asia’s second-largest economy, where democracy has been on shaky ground and the royalist establishment has engineered long stretches of military-backed rule.
Who are the Shinawatras?
The Shinawatras have been the driving force behind parties that won most Thai general elections since 2001, only to be booted out several times by the royalist establishment that viewed them as a threat. Descendants of a Chinese immigrant who married a Thai woman in the late 19th century, the Shinawatras are Thailand’s most prominent political dynasty, with three of its members occupying the country’s top political office at different times in the last 23 years. Thaksin has been a polarizing but enduring figure in politics since he first became prime minister in 2001. A landslide victory for his Thai Rak Thai Party in 2005 won him a second term in office, which ended abruptly a year later in a military coup. Thaksin left Thailand in 2008 to avoid corruption charges that he said were politically motivated. His sister Yingluck Shinawatra faced a similar fate after her Pheu Thai party won an election in 2011 and she became Thailand’s first female prime minister. Yingluck was ousted by judicial order in 2014, and weeks later her government was toppled in yet another coup.
How did the Shinawatras return to high office?
In May 2023, after almost nine years of military-backed rule, elections were held in which Pheu Thai came second to Move Forward — a new party that found support among mostly young and urban voters with a campaign to change a law that restricts what can be said about the nation’s powerful monarchy. In response, Pheu Thai and conservative, pro-establishment parties joined forces and agreed to make Srettha Thavisin prime minister of a new coalition government, in a deal that allowed Thaksin to return from self-imposed exile. Less than a year later, Srettha was removed from office by a court order over an ethics violation case and Thaksin’s youngest daughter, Paetongtarn, won a parliamentary vote to succeed him.
What challenges are facing the clan?
Thaksin still has a royal insult trial hanging over him, and Srettha’s short-lived premiership showed the Shinawatras’ power has its limits. Paetongtarn, who took office as the country’s youngest prime minister, faces questions over whether Thaksin wields significant influence over her administration. Yingluck faced similar concerns. These questions have sparked dozens of complaints that seek to disqualify Paetongtarn and dissolve the Pheu Thai Party. On top of the immediate legal challenges, the deal with the royalists has damaged Pheu Thai’s popularity and may affect its performance in the next general election cycle due in 2027. Move Forward’s leadership has established a new People’s Party with similar demands for wholesale political change. The movement’s pledge to improve living standards with large-scale social welfare programs has challenged Pheu Thai’s status as the party of the working class. Many Thais are struggling with debts, inequality remains high and a decline in poverty has slowed along with rates of economic growth.
How did the Shinawatras make their fortune?
Thaksin has portrayed himself as a self-made man from rural origins, but the family was relatively wealthy when he was growing up. The root of their fortune was a silk business his family established in the north of the country in the early 20th century. During a 14-year career in the police force, Thaksin started dabbling in silk retail, cinemas, real estate and computer leasing — with little success — before striking it rich in the technology boom of the 1980s and 1990s. His head start in the computer business and his political connections allowed him to snap up government concessions to operate paging and mobile phone services, cable TV subscriptions, data networks and satellites. At the height of his success, his Shin Corporation, now called Intouch Holdings, owned Thai mobile operator Advanced Info Service and satellite firm Shin Satellite (now Thaicom). Shin Corp was sold to Singapore state investment firm Temasek Holdings Pte in 2006. Today, Shinawatra family members including Thaksin’s ex-wife, Paetongtarn, and her two older siblings — Panthongtae and Pintongta — control companies spanning real estate to health care and hospitality. Some of those firms are listed on the Thai stock exchange, including property developer SC Asset, run by Thaksin’s son-in-law Nuttaphong Kunakornwong. Paetongtarn has stepped down from positions in the private sector to comply with share ownership laws.
Why does the establishment resent the Shinawatras?
The Shinawatras’ electoral and financial clout made them an intimidating rival to an elite made up of army generals, judges and senior civil servants that’s dominated Thailand’s most powerful state institutions since the era of absolute monarchy ended in 1932. Thaksin’s entrepreneurial success and personal ambition echoed the American Dream and resonated with many ordinary Thais who had grown discontented with the paternalistic style of previous political leaders. While many wealthier, well-educated and city-dwelling Thais accused Thaksin of cronyism, populism and corruption, he enjoyed wide support among poorer and working-class voters in the country’s north and northeast who made up the majority of the electorate and benefited from his big-ticket economic programs that came to be known as “Thaksinomics.” The groundswell of support for Thaksin was seen by the establishment as a threat to the country’s social hierarchy, in which the monarchy is perceived to sit at the top.
Why are the Shinawatras popular?
In the wake of the 1997 Asian financial crisis, Thaksin spent heavily on grassroots measures designed to stimulate domestic demand such as debt moratorium plans for farmers, low-cost housing projects and loans for small and medium-sized enterprises. A universal health-care initiative revolutionized access for poor people to medical care and still benefits millions of Thais two decades later. Its “gold card” is held by 47 million Thais, or 70% of the population. After a coup toppled Thaksin’s administration in 2006, his mostly rural supporters formed the pro-democracy “Red Shirt” movement to protest against his removal, and often clashed with a rival “Yellow Shirt” group made up of urban middle-class Thais that sought to eradicate the Shinawatras from Thai politics.
Why did Thaksin and Yingluck go into exile?
Opponents accused Thaksin of abusing his power to promote his family’s business interests. Sales of the Shinawatras’ majority stakes in Shin Corp to a foreign company were seen as the final straw, and mass protests by the Yellow Shirts eventually led to his downfall. Thaksin claimed assassination attempts were made against him before and after the 2006 coup, making him fear for his safety. His then-wife Pojamarn Damapong was sentenced to prison for tax evasion linked to a transfer of Shin Corp shares, and Thaksin decided to flee in 2008 to avoid corruption charges. He spent the intervening years shuttling between Hong Kong, Singapore, Dubai and London, and was found guilty in absentia in four graft cases. Thaksin was ordered to serve eight years in prison for corruption after he returned to Thailand in 2023. He got his sentence commuted to one year in a royal pardon before getting out on special parole in February 2024. Yingluck fled Thailand in 2017 and a court later sentenced her to five years in prison for criminal negligence in a rice subsidy program that cost the state billions of dollars. Although she remains in self-imposed exile, Thaksin has mentioned efforts to bring her home sometime in 2025.
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