(Bloomberg) -- Tensions between the two most powerful political clans in the Philippines are at boiling point, with Vice President Sara Duterte telling President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. she would have him assassinated if someone did the same to her. The political marriage that brought the rival Marcos and Duterte dynasties to the highest government posts has been unraveling fast, threatening to reshape the political landscape ahead of midterm elections next year. What’s not clear is whether the war of words reflects the usual rough-and-tumble of Philippines politics, or a complete breakdown of trust.
How did this feud start?
Duterte and Marcos, both children of former presidents, were widely seen as contenders for the country’s top job in a 2022 election. Duterte eventually became Marcos’s running mate and the pair triumphed in the vote. Since then, they’ve not seen eye to eye on issues ranging from constitutional reform to the high-profile arrest in September of Apollo Quiboloy — a Philippines pastor who once served as a spiritual advisor to Sara Duterte’s father Rodrigo when he was president. Quiboloy is wanted by the US Federal Bureau of Investigation for the suspected sex trafficking of children and other charges. He has denied the allegations.
There has been name-calling, with Rodrigo Duterte dismissing the current president as “spoiled” and “weak.” Marcos has reversed the pro-China policies of the Rodrigo Duterte government, drawing closer to the US and defying Beijing on its territorial claims in the South China Sea.
Sara Duterte resigned from Marcos’s cabinet in July as the president’s allies in the House of Representatives probed allegations that she misused public funds. Since then, she has been openly criticizing Marcos, even threatening to exhume his father’s remains and saying that she once imagined beheading the president.
What triggered the assassination threat?
As Sara became more vocal, her family came under greater scrutiny. Her father had to face congressional inquiries over a drug war prosecuted during his time in office, with the Marcos administration signaling it may cooperate with international authorities probing the former president’s deadly anti-narcotics campaign and suspected use of extrajudicial killings.
The House is pursuing its investigation of the vice president and has ordered that her chief of staff be detained, with lawmakers saying he allegedly blocked the release of key documents. Sara Duterte sought to defy the House by staying at the parliament building. On Nov. 23, she held a news briefing in which she hurled insults at Marcos and said her security was under threat. She said she had ordered someone to assassinate Marcos, his wife and his cousin if she herself were killed.
What are the possible consequences?
The Department of Justice is looking into the matter and said in a statement: “If the evidence warrants, this could lead to eventual prosecution.” Duterte has tried to walk back some of her fiery rhetoric, saying her remarks were “maliciously taken out of logical context.”
There is the possibility of impeachment proceedings against her in the House of Representatives. A conviction by the Senate seems unlikely, however, given the risk of a backlash by Duterte supporters against senators seeking reelection. Duterte remains popular in the country, according to the latest opinion polls.
Marcos’s security has been tightened and the president has said of the threats: “Such criminal attempts should not be ignored.”
How much impact will this have?
It’s not immediately clear how the latest developments will affect a May 2025 midterm election. Analysts have previously warned any signs of instability could hurt the Philippine economy. Gross domestic product growth slowed to 5.2% year on year in the third quarter, down from 6.4% in the previous quarter, driven by softer exports and government spending. “The whole world is watching this now. Why would they invest in a place if there’s instability?” said Ronald Llamas, a political analyst and former presidential adviser.
What roles have the two families played in politics?
The Duterte clan’s patriarch is Rodrigo’s father, Vicente, who served as a cabinet minister under former President Ferdinand Marcos in the 1960s.
Rodrigo Duterte served a single, six-year term as president from 2016. He has filed his candidacy for mayor in his bailiwick, the southern city of Davao, in the 2025 elections.
The elder Marcos served as president for more than 20 years, ruling the country with an iron fist. The family began to try to claw back political power almost as soon as they lost it in 1986. His wife Imelda, now 95, remains an influential figure, her name synonymous with ill-gotten wealth. Ferdinand Marcos Jr., also known as Bongbong, has an older sister, Imee, who serves as a senator and the family retains power in its home province of Ilocos Norte.
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