(Bloomberg) -- Ukraine pleaded with the US for months to let it use American-made weapons to hit military targets inside Russia beyond the border zone. Now, as he nears the end of his presidency, Joe Biden has relented and lifted some restrictions, according to people familiar with the decision.
Under the new approach, Ukraine can use these weapons against targets that relate to its operations in the Kursk region, a chunk of Russian territory that it occupied over the summer and is fighting to hold onto in the face of assaults by Russian and North Korean forces. The US reversal is a response to North Korea’s decision to send more than 10,000 troops to Kursk as part of a deepening alliance with Moscow, as well as stepped-up Russian attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, said the people with knowledge of the matter.
What weapons does the US decision cover?
The US approval applies to American-made Army Tactical Missile Systems, known as ATACMS. These supersonic guided missiles have a range of about 300 kilometers (190 miles) and can carry conventional or cluster munitions. The missiles, made by Lockheed Martin Corp., can be launched from the HIMARS platform, which the US supplies to Ukraine, and the MLRS M270 platform, sent by countries including the UK.
Ukraine has been firing its home-made drones deep into Russia for months, but the US weapons are more destructive.
What are other Ukraine allies doing?
The UK approved Ukraine’s use of its Storm Shadow cruise missiles deeper into Russia, according to a Western official familiar with the matter.
French officials privately praised Biden’s decision, and Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot said France remained open to allowing Ukraine to use its long-range missiles to strike military targets inside Russia. France supplies Ukraine with long-range SCALP missiles.
Germany reiterated its refusal to supply longer-range Taurus cruise missiles after news broke about the US decision.
How might the US decision affect the course of the conflict?
In arguing for the US approval, officials in Ukraine — whose President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has long complained about limitations to US military backing — said they need the capability to hit the air bases and planes Russia uses for glide-bomb and missile attacks as well as logistics and command networks.
Just over a year ago, the US authorized Ukraine to use shorter-range American missiles on targets inside Russia-occupied areas of Ukraine. Kyiv said those strikes had a major impact on the battlefield.
But allied officials don’t expect the latest authorization to have a comparable impact, at least for now, or to dramatically shift the balance of the conflict, where Ukraine’s forces have been losing ground in recent months amid heavy pressure from more numerous and better-equipped Russian troops.
The Pentagon said in September that Russia had already moved 90% of the aircraft it uses to launch glide-bomb and missile attacks on Ukraine out of range for ATACMS. Also, Ukraine currently has limited supplies of the missiles, which can cost more than $1 million each.
How will Russia respond?
Since the Ukrainian appeals became public, Russian President Vladimir Putin has warned that Russia would view the use of US weapons deeper in his country as an escalation. In September, he threatened that Russia would regard the move as “direct participation” of NATO countries in the war in Ukraine, though he didn’t spell out how Moscow would respond.
In a briefing on Nov. 18, Putin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said the US decision would provoke a “qualitatively new round of tension.”
Western officials have said Russia may retaliate by stepping up sabotage efforts in countries allied with Ukraine and possibly helping Iranian-backed groups target US forces in the Middle East.
Why did the US change its mind?
People familiar with the matter said the White House decision was a response to North Korea ramping up support for Putin’s army and increased Russian missile and drone attacks on Ukraine.
The US and its allies have grown extremely concerned about North Korea’s agreement to deploy its forces in combat in support of Russia. Assessments by some governments suggest North Korea could eventually send as many as 100,000 soldiers to Russia — in batches, with troops rotating over time.
Biden is also looking for ways to bolster Ukraine two months before his presidency ends and Donald Trump returns to office with a pledge to end the war quickly.
At the same time, US officials have warned that supplying more of the missiles to Ukraine could leave American forces short of the vital weapon.
What does the incoming Trump administration say about this?
“It’s another step up the escalation ladder. And nobody knows where this is going,” Mike Waltz, the Florida congressman nominated by Trump to be National Security Advisor said Nov. 18 of the Biden administration decision, reiterating that the president-elect plans to negotiate an end to the war.
Trump’s son, Don Jr., posted on X that the decision risked provoking “World War 3,” echoing Kremlin warnings.
Trump hasn’t explained how he would end the war, raising fears he could pressure Ukraine into an unfavorable deal with Russia.
--With assistance from Samy Adghirni and Greg Sullivan.
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