China Population Set for 51 Million Drop as Pro-Birth Moves Fail

(Bloomberg) -- China’s population is expected to shrink by 51 million — more than the size of California — over the next decade as policymakers struggle to reverse the country’s falling birth rate, according to Bloomberg Intelligence.

By 2035, the population is expected to drop to 1.36 billion, levels not seen since 2012, down from a peak of 1.41 billion in 2021, BI senior industry analyst Ada Li estimates.

There could be a temporary spike in births in 2024 as the Year of the Dragon is considered an auspicious time to have children. But past single-year surges in birth rates have been short-lived, and this year may be no exception, especially with marriage rates at an all-time low, Li said.

China faces a looming population crisis, with the United Nations projecting it could shrink to half its current size by 2100. Decades of restrictive family formation policies, rising living costs and changing social norms have led to fewer women having children. A shrinking workforce and growing elderly population are increasing pressure on the economy, pension systems and healthcare infrastructure.

“Policymakers are likely to step up the pace of reform as they take aim at the barriers standing between reproductive age couples, and their desire to build families,” Li said in a report Monday. This could include improving reproductive and pediatric health-care services, and making child care more affordable.

Beijing has radically changed its childbirth policies in recent years. It ended the one-child policy in 2016, replacing it with a two-child policy, and then promoted having three children in 2021.

Local officials have rolled out various incentives, including cash for families, extended maternity and paternity leave, and even reaching out to women directly to discuss fertility, according to some reports.

Within 20 years, deaths are set to be double the number of births. The old-age dependency ratio may reach 52% — meaning there would be just two working-age individuals for every person over 65 years, BI forecasts.