(Bloomberg) -- Treasuries edged higher, paring their weekly decline as traders turned their focus from Donald Trump’s US election victory to the latest economic data prints and Federal Reserve speakers.
The yield on the 10-year note slipped for a second day, leaving it up about 12 basis points in the week. Investors will get more clues about the scope for Fed easing with US retail sales numbers due later Friday as well as officials including Austan Goolsbee and Susan Collins. Fed Chair Jerome Powell sent two-year yields higher on Thursday after suggesting the central bank is in no rush to cut rates.
The data and commentary mark a return to more traditional market drivers after Trump’s win triggered frenzied speculation about the potential impact of his proposed policies on inflation and rate policy.
“Markets are back to focusing on policy and the macro environment, after an exhausting election cycle in the US,” said Ajay Rajadhyaksha, chair of global research at Barclays. “Treasuries look fairly priced, but still not cheap.”
The 10-year yield has hit resistance at the level of 4.5%. If retail sales growth comes in faster than the 0.3% median estimate in a Bloomberg survey, Mizuho International Plc strategist Evelyne Gomez-Liechti says it could trigger a move higher. Mizuho is forecasting growth of 0.5%.
Prices in the swaps market imply about a 60% chance of a quarter-point interest-rate cut by the Fed next month since Powell’s comments. That’s down from as much as 80% earlier in the week.
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