(Bloomberg) -- Japan’s economy grew at a slightly faster pace than expected, backing the case for the central bank to stay on the path toward rate hikes while also easing pressure on the government as it finalizes fiscal stimulus steps to be unveiled this month.
Gross domestic product expanded at an annualized pace of 0.9% in the three months through September from the prior period, the Cabinet Office reported Friday, slowing from a downwardly revised 2.2% clip in the previous period. The result was a tad higher than the 0.7% consensus estimate.
The slowdown will help justify Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s case for compiling a stimulus package set to be released as early as next week. Ishiba is under pressure to restore support after voter discontent over persistent inflation played a role in the ruling coalition’s electoral debacle last month, when it lost its majority in parliament.
At the same time, the results were a little more bullish than economists expected. Private consumption growth accelerated to 0.9% from the previous quarter, defying expectations for a slowdown, even as a major typhoon weighed on sentiment during the period. The Cabinet Office said people spent more on cars, food and mobile phones.
“We can see that consumer spending is firming up. Inflation remains high, but we can see that money is also flowing into consumption as a result of wage increases,” said Nobuyasu Atago, chief economist at Rakuten Securities Economic Research Institute. “We can say that the economy is continuing to move in a positive cycle.”
Friday’s data will likely keep the Bank of Japan on its path toward policy normalization, as the central bank will probably maintain its view that consumption is steady overall, barring the impact of national disasters, Yoshiki Shinke, senior executive economist at Dai-Ichi Life Research Institute, wrote in a note before the GDP report.
Atago concurred with that assessment. “I think the BOJ is relieved by these figures. I think the probability is rising that the BOJ will raise the interest rate in December,” he said.
The third-quarter GDP figures will be revised on Dec. 9, in the last set of growth data before the BOJ meets to decide policy in December and January. A majority of economists surveyed by Bloomberg expects the central bank to raise its benchmark interest rate either next month or in January.
What Bloomberg Economics Says...
“What’s striking is that the expansion was surprisingly strong — and powered by stronger-than-expected consumer spending. For the Bank of Japan, the data will likely support its view that the economy is sturdy enough to bear a further reduction in stimulus, and will bring it a step closer to delivering its next rate hike.”
— Taro Kimura, senior Japan economist
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Net exports subtracted from growth as a weaker yen inflated the value of imports. That outweighed the benefits stemming from a steady flow of overseas tourists, whose spending is counted as part of service exports.
Uncertainties are mounting surrounding the outlook for external demand in Japan’s key trade destinations. In China, authorities are attempting to boost growth with aggressive stimulus efforts that economists predict may be starting to show modest results. In the US, President-elect Donald Trump has pledged to impose higher tariffs on all imports, including those from Tokyo.
The size of the economy shows how moderate growth has been. The nation’s real GDP stood at ¥558.5 trillion ($3.6 trillion) at the end of September, according to Friday’s report, still below its recent peak of ¥562.9 trillion in the second quarter of last year.
Overall, Friday’s results show that the weaker yen, traditionally seen as a growth booster via stronger exports, continues to have a mixed impact on the economy. While exports have grown for most of the year, the weaker currency threatens to revive imported inflation as it boosts costs for goods, raw materials and food that Japan procures from abroad.
Companies continue to pass on rising operating costs to consumers through price increases, a trend that’s helped keep inflation at or above the BOJ’s target for 30 months.
As a result, robust nominal wage growth hasn’t consistently translated into real wage gains, creating a disincentive for shoppers to loosen purse strings. Authorities are hopeful wage growth momentum will hold steady as unions and employers prepare to engage in annual negotiations that will culminate with an agreement in March.
Ishiba is under pressure to support households contending with persistent inflation. The government is expected to unveil as early as next week stimulus measures that include cash handouts and childcare allowances to low-income families, as well as a pledge to reinstate subsidies to reduce electricity and gas bills from January through March. Ishiba has said he intends to secure an extra budget to fund the package that exceeds last year’s supplemental budget tally of ¥13 trillion.
Japan stepped into the foreign exchange market in July to support its currency, but the action’s impact was short-lived. The yen’s weakening trend accelerated after Trump prevailed in the Nov. 5 polls, slumping past the 155-per-dollar threshold earlier this week.
Beyond its impact on costs and domestic demand, the weak yen continues to dim Japan’s standing as an international economic power, with the economy having slid in global rankings to number four in dollar terms earlier this year. The yen was trading around 156.50 to the dollar after the release of the figures.
--With assistance from Takashi Umekawa.
(Updates with economists’ comments)
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