(Bloomberg) -- Australia’s run of hiring gains slowed in October, while the unemployment rate held steady, underscoring the resilience of the labor market to elevated interest rates.
Employment rose by 15,900 last month compared with a forecast 25,000 gain, Australian Bureau of Statistics data showed Thursday. The jobless rate was unchanged at 4.1% while the participation rate edged down to 67.1%.
“While employment grew in October, the 0.1% increase was the slowest growth in recent months,” said Bjorn Jarvis, ABS head of labor statistics.
The Australian dollar edged lower following the jobs data while the yield on policy sensitive three-year bonds dipped 1 basis point to 4.21%. Traders maintained their view on Reserve Bank policy in 2025, pricing a roughly 72% chance it will ease in May.
Earlier this week, separate data showed annual wage growth slowed by more than expected in the third quarter, reflecting an easing in price pressures across the economy.
The wages and jobs reports together with a monthly inflation gauge due later this month will be important inputs for the Reserve Bank’s December policy meeting, when it’s expected to keep rates at a 13-year high of 4.35%. Economists reckon the RBA’s next move is down, with a first cut seen only next year.
That’s broadly in-line with Governor Michele Bullock’s thinking after she signaled last week that rates will need to remain elevated for now as underlying inflation “remains too high.”
The RBA’s board this month described Australia’s labor market as “tight,” saying “while conditions have been easing gradually, some indicators have recently stabilized,” pointing to youth unemployment and underemployment rates.
Unemployment has ticked up from a post-pandemic low and the RBA expects it to peak at 4.5% by the end of 2025.
“There is very limited read through from the labor data for the market and for the RBA,” said Prashant Newnaha, senior Asia-Pacific rates strategist at Toronto-Dominion Bank in Singapore. “At a minimum there needs to be a string of weak job prints for the RBA to switch to an easing bias over the coming months. Right now we are not there.”
Thursday’s jobs report also showed:
- Annual employment growth rose 2.7%
- Full time roles rose 9,700 while part-time gained 6,200
- The employment-to-population ratio stayed at 64.4%
- Underemployment edged down to 6.2%
--With assistance from Matthew Burgess.
(Adds further details from report, comment from strategist.)
©2024 Bloomberg L.P.