(Bloomberg) -- Russia’s seaborne crude exports rebounded in the latest week, with a jump in cargoes from the Arctic region helping to stabilize the four-week average.
Weekly flows rose by about 260,000 barrels a day in the period to Nov. 10, as a recovery in shipments from the Arctic port of Murmansk more than offset a dip in flows from Russia’s main Pacific terminal at Kozmino. Shipments from the Black Sea port of Novorossiysk also rebounded from the previous week's maintenance-hit level. Four-week exports edged higher.
The increase in Arctic shipments was expected, with four tankers at, or very close to, Murmansk fjord at the start of last week. Loadings there are likely to slip back again, with one tanker already off the port and two more expected to arrive, but toward the end of the week.
Russia’s primary refining rate edged higher in the first week of November, as seasonal maintenance passed its peak. That will likely reduce the volume of crude available for export, though the effect could be offset by a Ukrainian drone strike on Rosneft’s Saratov oil refinery.
Russia pumped crude almost in line with its OPEC+ output target in October, according to people familiar with Energy Ministry figures, including a modest compensatory cut to make up for earlier over-production. That came after the group of oil producers, which Russia leads alongside Saudi Arabia, delayed for the second time a plan to start adding back some of the supply it has cut in recent years. Moscow will have to wait until at least the start of next year to enjoy a rising production target, though that could be postponed again.
Crude Shipments
A total of 31 tankers loaded 23.96 million barrels of Russian crude in the week to Nov. 10, vessel-tracking data and port-agent reports show. The volume was up from a revised 22.13 million barrels on 30 ships the previous week.
Daily crude flows in the week to Nov. 10 rose by about 260,000 barrels to 3.42 million, recovering about 70% of the previous week’s drop. The increase was driven by a jump in flows from the country’s Arctic region, which more than offset lower shipments from the Pacific.
Less volatile four-week average flows also rose, edging up to average 3.39 million barrels a day, an increase of 30,000 from the period to Nov. 3.
Crude shipments so far this year are about 40,000 barrels a day, or 1.2%, below the average for the whole of 2023.
One cargo of Kazakhstan’s KEBCO crude was loaded at Ust-Luga on the Baltic Sea and one at Novorossiysk on the Black Sea during the week.
Russia terminated its export targets at the end of May, opting instead to restrict production, in line with its partners in the OPEC+ oil producers’ group. The country’s output target is set at 8.978 million barrels a day until the end of December, after a planned easing of some output cuts was delayed for a second time.
Moscow also pledged to make deeper output cuts in October and November this year, then between March and September of 2025, to compensate for pumping above its OPEC+ quota earlier this year.
Export Value
The Kremlin’s oil income rose with an increase in weekly-average prices for Russia’s major crude streams adding to the effect of the higher export volume. Together they pushed the gross value of Moscow’s exports up by about $160 million to $1.56 billion in the week to Nov. 10.
The price gain was in line with broader increases for oil in the run-up to the US election won by Donald Trump.
Export values at Baltic ports were up week-on-week by about $2.40 a barrel. Prices for Black Sea loading Urals and key Pacific grade ESPO rose by about $2.70 and $2.80 respectively, compared with the previous week. Delivered prices in India were up by about $2.60 a barrel, all according to numbers from Argus Media.
Four-week average income moved in the opposite direction, edging down to about $1.53 billion a week, from a revised $1.54 billion in the period to Nov. 3.
On this basis, the price of Russia’s shipments from the Baltic and Black Sea in the four weeks to Nov. 10 was down by almost $1 a barrel from the period to Nov. 3. Prices for key Pacific grade ESPO were lower by about $0.60 a barrel.
Flows by Destination
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Asia
Observed shipments to Russia’s Asian customers, including those showing no final destination, edged lower to 3.02 million barrels a day in the four weeks to Nov. 10.
About 1.36 million barrels a day of crude were loaded onto tankers heading to China. The Asian nation’s seaborne imports are boosted by about 800,000 barrels a day of crude delivered from Russia by pipeline, either directly, or via Kazakhstan.
Flows on ships signaling destinations in India averaged 1.23 million barrels a day, down from a revised 1.38 million for the period to Nov. 3 and 1.63 million in the four weeks to Oct. 27.
The Indian figures, in particular, are likely to rise as the discharge ports become clear for vessels that are not currently showing final destinations. Most of those heading from Russia’s western ports through the Suez Canal end up in the south Asian nation.
The equivalent of about 300,000 barrels a day was on vessels signaling Port Said or Suez in Egypt. Those show up as “Unknown Asia” until a final destination becomes apparent.
The “Other Unknown” volumes, running at about 140,000 barrels a day in the four weeks to Nov. 10, are those on tankers showing no clear destination. Most originate from Russia’s western ports and go on to transit the Suez Canal, but some could end up in Turkey. Others may be moved from one vessel to another.
One Suezmax tanker, Sakarya, appears to have transferred its cargo into a VLCC near the Spanish exclave of Ceuta. A second, Cankiri, may be doing the same.
Separately, Greek naval exercises that have been running since May and have forced most ship-to-ship cargo transfers out of the Laconian Gulf and nearby waters, are due to end this week, unless they are extended again.
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Europe and Turkey
Russia’s seaborne crude exports to European countries have ceased, with flows to Bulgaria halted at the end of last year. Moscow also lost about 500,000 barrels a day of pipeline exports to Poland and Germany at the start of 2023, when those countries stopped purchases.
Turkey is now the only short-haul market for shipments from Russia’s western ports. Flows in the 28 days to Nov. 10 rose to about 370,000 barrels a day, the highest in more than four months.
NOTES
This story forms part of a weekly series tracking shipments of crude from Russian export terminals and the gross value of those flows. The next update will be on Tuesday, Nov. 19.
All figures exclude cargoes identified as Kazakhstan’s KEBCO grade. Those are shipments made by KazTransoil JSC that transit Russia for export through Novorossiysk and Ust-Luga and are not subject to European Union sanctions or a price cap. The Kazakh barrels are blended with crude of Russian origin to create a uniform export stream. Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Kazakhstan has rebranded its cargoes to distinguish them from those shipped by Russian companies.
Vessel-tracking data are cross-checked against port agent reports as well as flows and ship movements reported by other information providers including Kpler and Vortexa Ltd.
If you are reading this story on the Bloomberg terminal, click for a link to a PDF file of four-week average flows from Russia to key destinations.
--With assistance from Sherry Su.
©2024 Bloomberg L.P.