(Bloomberg) -- Israel sees Donald Trump’s dramatic US election victory as freeing its hand to press on with the wars against Hamas and Hezbollah and even contemplate strikes aimed at disabling Iran’s nuclear program.
“You do what you have to do,” Trump told Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu last month when asked how to handle the showdown with Iran and its regional proxies. That carte blanche contrasts with calls by outgoing American leader Joe Biden for Netanyahu to show restraint and ensure more aid is dispensed to Palestinian civilians in the Gaza Strip, even as he’s stepped up military support to Israel.
The likelihood of Israel attacking Iran’s nuclear facilities has increased, said Nadav Shtrauchler, a former Netanyahu adviser. “Bibi is the son of a historian and quite the historian himself, and he knows how to track big events for the right opportunity,” he said, referring to the Israeli leader by his nickname.
Fighting erupted on Oct. 7 last year after Hamas militants swarmed into southern Israel, killing 1,200 people and taking about 250 hostage. Israel responded with an aerial and ground assault on Gaza that the Hamas-run health ministry says has claimed more than 43,000 lives. The Israel Defense Forces says about 400 of its members have been killed.
Lebanon-based Hezbollah backed Hamas and fired missiles, rockets and drones at Israel, which responded in kind before staging a ground invasion on Oct. 1. Iran, which backs both groups, has staged two aerial attacks on Israel, which countered with limited strikes of its own. The US classifies Hamas and Hezbollah as terrorist organizations.
Trump, who is due to be inaugurated on Jan. 20, has repeatedly voiced his aversion to long and costly wars, and has previously called for a speedy end to conflict in the Middle East because of the damage it was doing to Israel’s image. Netanyahu could interpret those remarks as encouragement to seek a swift victory — or at least not to cave in to cease-fire offers he considers to be unfavorable.
Netanyahu’s office said he called Trump on Wednesday night and they had a “warm and cordial” conversation, during which they discussed Iran and agreed to work together on Israel’s security.
An Israeli official familiar with the thinking inside the nation’s security cabinet said the handover period in the US could provide Israel with a window in which to attack against Iran’s nuclear program, which Netanyahu considers to be an existential danger.
Over the last two months, Israel has degraded Hezbollah’s capabilities and destroyed some of Iran’s air defenses, buoying Netanyahu’s optimism. Israel now has “greater freedom of action than ever before” against its arch-foe, he said in an Oct. 26 speech.
Mark Dubowitz, chief executive of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies think-tank in Washington, sees Israel as having the capability to attack Iran’s Natanz and Isfahan enrichment facilities, although it may struggle to destroy them without American participation and weaponry.
“The Fordow enrichment facility will be more complicated as it is buried deep underground and heavily fortified,” he said. “But Israel has demonstrated its deep penetration of Iran’s nuclear, security and intelligence apparatus, and may have some unpleasant surprises in waiting for the ayatollah.”
Sanam Vakil, director of the Middle East and North Africa program at Chatham House in London, is skeptical such an Israeli strike will happen without Biden’s direct support.” She expects Israel to step up its military campaigns in case it does come under pressure from the new US administration to de-escalate the situation.
“I do think that Israel will take the next 76 days as a license to weaken, if not break, Iran and the Axis of Resistance to the best of its abilities,” Vakil said, referring to Iran’s network of allies. “Israel wants to be in the strongest possible position on Jan. 21, should President Trump call time on this metastasizing war. Netanyahu is preparing for that outcome.”
JD Vance, Trump’s presumptive vice president, has said the US interest “very much is in not going to war with Iran,” while acknowledging that Israel may have other ideas.
Iran insists it isn’t looking to pursue nuclear weapons but its steady ramping up of uranium enrichment has put it within weeks of refining the material enough to make a bomb. After that, constructing a warhead to carry it would take a year or two, but could potentially be done well away from international scrutiny.
The US has beefed up its military deployments in Middle East, including sending B-52 strategic bombers to the region. However, a veteran US official who spoke on condition of anonymity ruled out any prospect of Biden ordering an attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities in concert with Israel.
Danny Danon, Israel’s ambassador to the UN, said he expected the change in administration in the US to make his job easier, while cautioning against expectations that the fighting would be over by the time Trump assumes office.
“When you come into such an important job, not everything happens as you would like it to,” Danon told Israel’s Channel 12 television station. “We do not work in accordance with a US stopwatch. We work in accordance with our goals and our needs.”
Shtrauchler said Netanyahu is likely to keep his options open.
“On whether or not to attack Iran, he will try to hold off and then decide at the very last moment,” he said.
--With assistance from Ethan Bronner.
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