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Chinese Markets Rattled as Trump’s Return Stokes Tariff Fears

The portrait of former Chinese leader Mao Zedong is displayed on a Chinese one-hundred yuan banknote in an arranged photograph taken in Hong Kong, China, on Thursday, April 23, 2020. The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has cut short- and medium-term rates recently on top of liquidity injections, loan rollovers and easier regulatory rules. Photographer: Paul Yeung/Bloomberg (Paul Yeung/Bloomberg)

(Bloomberg) -- The yuan weakened the most in two years and Chinese stocks fell, giving traders a taste of the volatility that lies ahead as Donald Trump closes in on the US presidency. 

The offshore yuan fell as much as 1.3% against the dollar, the largest one-day drop since October 2022. Chinese shares listed in Hong Kong bore the brunt of the selling, with a Hang Seng gauge closing 2.6% lower, while stocks on the mainland registered smaller declines amid hopes for more stimulus.

Traders now have to grapple with the specter of Washington slapping tariffs of up to 60% on Chinese goods, a move that can further weaken the world’s second-largest economy and disrupt global supply chains. While some have said a second Trump presidency will weigh less on Chinese markets given investors have become accustomed to his hawkish rhetoric, policy uncertainties and rising tensions may still fuel market swings.  

“The volatility of the yuan will pick up in the short term as a knee-jerk reaction to Trump’s victory,” said Cary Yeung, head of Greater China debt at Pictet Asset Management. The longer-term price action depends on tariffs implementation, US rate cut trajectory and the magnitude of China’s policy response to stabilize the economy, he said. 

The onshore yuan extended declines to 0.9% as Trump’s lead widened in the afternoon.

Traders are now turning their attention to Beijing’s policy firepower. With Chinese exports proving to be a rare bright spot amid a sluggish economy, a hostile trade environment means authorities will need to ramp up both monetary and fiscal support to offset the negative impact. 

The central bank chief has pledged to maintain an accommodative monetary policy stance and double down on countercyclical adjustments. There’s also the expectation of further fiscal stimulus from the Standing Committee meeting of the National People’s Congress, which concludes on Friday. 

Market Swings 

Chinese stocks were already under pressure after the rally triggered by a monetary policy blitz in late September cooled. The CSI 300 Index surged nearly 35% from a September low through Oct. 8, but has fallen about 5% since. The benchmark for onshore shares slipped 0.5% on Wednesday. 

While Beijing may offer support if markets go south, there are concerns over how a second Trump presidency, and his anti-China policies, may sour US investors’ appetite toward the Asian nation. 

“Trump may introduce more tariffs and add more entities to either the banned entity and/or banned security lists on a faster basis,” said Lorraine Tan, director of equity research at Morningstar. “We also anticipate his usual style of bombastic rhetoric could lead to market volatility.”

The response of Chinese officials to post-election currency market volatility will also be keenly watched. While some have speculated China could depreciate the yuan to ease stress in the export sector should there be a sizable tariff hike, others expect the People’s Bank of China to stick to its stable currency playbook and curb volatility via intervention and management of the yuan’s daily reference rate. 

State-owned banks actively sold the dollar in onshore trading around the 7.13 and 7.15 levels, slowing the yuan’s decline, according to Chinese traders who asked not to be identified. The banks also borrowed the dollar in the pair’s swap market via one-year contracts, they added.

“Policymakers will tend to ensure that currency moves do not get overly excessive,” said Fiona Lim, a senior strategist at Malayan Banking Bhd. “As such, some leaning against the wind activities cannot be ruled out to slow the pace of currency depreciation.”

--With assistance from Ran Li, Tania Chen, Neha D'silva and Winnie Hsu.

©2024 Bloomberg L.P.