(Bloomberg) -- A budding alliance between Russia and North Korea is handing Chinese President Xi Jinping another problem, as Beijing comes under growing international pressure to rein in two of its closest diplomatic partners.
The revelation last month that Kim Jong Un sent thousands of troops to Russia’s border sparked fears that Europe’s largest conflict since World War II was on the verge of escalating. The prospect of North Koreans fighting for Vladimir Putin also prompted calls for China to use its sway to intervene.
Secretary of State Antony Blinken said American officials had urged Beijing to leverage its influence to “curb these activities” during “robust” talks. A senior South Korean official told reporters that the troop deployment didn’t align with China’s interests, adding that Seoul had asked officials in Beijing to play a responsible role in the conflict.
For Xi, it’s a diplomatic headache that comes at a perilous time. While China has been the biggest benefactor to Russia and North Korea in recent years as the Chinese leader challenges the US-led world order, he has sought to portray Beijing as neutral regarding the war in Ukraine while looking to improve ties with the US and its allies. With China’s struggling economy propped up by exports, he has an interest in keeping external relations more-or-less stable.
The Kim-Putin partnership disrupts Xi’s careful balancing act on both fronts. Not only does the Russia-North Korea relationship risk adding economic pressure on China, but it also undermines Beijing’s argument that the US shouldn’t have military alliances in the region.
The troop deployment is likely to bring “more scrutiny and pressure upon China,” said Patricia M Kim, a fellow at the John L. Thornton China Center and the Brookings Institution, who cautioned it was unclear what sway Beijing had over its neighbors’ military operations.
“Beijing will be careful not to publicly alienate Pyongyang or Moscow,” she added. “But as concerns of North Korean escalation grow, this could push Chinese leaders to engage in quiet diplomacy with their European, Asian and American counterparts.”
China has publicly remained muted on North Korea’s troop dispatch to Russia, a sign it’s unhappy with Kim adding risks to the geopolitical landscape. Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian said Beijing was “unaware of specifics of cooperation between Russia and North Korea” at a regular briefing in Beijing on Friday, refusing to elaborate.
Adding to the turbulence, North Korea fired suspected ballistic missiles Tuesday, days after launching an intercontinental ballistic missile that flaunted Kim’s ability to deliver a nuclear strike to the US mainland. That message came on the cusp of a tight US election that could return to power Donald Trump, who has threatened to reignite a trade war with China and raises the prospect of a new round of talks with Kim.
For more than a decade, China has helped sustain North Korea through unparalleled aid and trade, but that position is being challenged by Putin as he turns to Kim to bolster his war efforts. North Korea has so far sent Russia weapons worth as much as $5.5 billion, according to a study by the Friedrich Naumann Foundation.
That is equal to about one-fifth of North Korea’s yearly gross domestic product and if Putin paid that amount — either in cash or goods — it would represent the biggest jolt to North Korea’s economy since Kim took power more than a dozen years ago.
The flow of aid from Russia means Kim is less dependent on China. North Korea’s state media appears to be showing a shift in the dynamic by toning down the rhetoric of friendship toward Beijing and heaping more praise on Russia. Pyongyang has also increased its official exchanges with Moscow, with the most recent being a visit by its foreign minister to Russia.
By contrast, Kim and Xi haven’t met in person since June 2019, when the Chinese leader paid a state visit to Pyongyang and advocated for the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula. Prior to that trip, the North Korean leader traveled to Beijing four times in ten months, as he worked closely with China to reset ties with the US and South Korea.
Those efforts have since collapsed, with Kim in February declaring he had the right to annihilate his neighbor. In Xi’s public absence, Putin has moved closer. Kim welcomed the Russian leader with a hug as he touched down in North Korea for the first time in 24 years this summer. Both men pledged during that visit to provide immediate military aid if one was attacked.
A North Korea emboldened by Russia could endanger Beijing’s goal of maintaining stability in the region, according to Victor Cha, Korea chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. The security pact between Moscow and Pyongyang, he added, has already prompted Seoul to consider ending its ban on sending lethal weapons to Ukraine.
“If South Korean weapons go to Ukraine — what if these are used to kill North Koreans? How will Kim respond?” Cha said.
Whatever the risks for Xi, it’s unclear whether China is feeling the costs of their alliance enough yet to expend its own political capital. “I don’t believe China is in a good position to say what you should do,” said Zhou Bo, a retired senior colonel in the Chinese military. “I don’t believe they will listen if China moves in that direction.”
Demanding Russia ends the war could “lose Beijing an important collaborator,” according to Neil Thomas, a fellow for Chinese politics at the Asia Society Policy Institute’s Center for China Analysis.
“Beijing is unlikely to respond in a way that undermines its rising diplomatic, economic and military cooperation with Moscow,” he added. “It’s more likely to increase its own outreach to Pyongyang.”
--With assistance from Jon Herskovitz and Soo-Hyang Choi.
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