(Bloomberg) -- On a pitch-black Thursday evening at the center of one of the world’s riskiest geopolitical flash points, an array of Taiwanese tanks, armored vehicles, and troops are spread out across a breach, practicing for a scenario they hope never happens.
The official position in Washington and Taipei on conflict with China’s People’s Liberation Army is that it’s neither imminent nor inevitable. In Beijing, while the government has pledged to one day bring self-governed Taiwan under its control, officials have also said they’d prefer to do so peacefully.
But keeping the peace, which all sides profess to be trying to do, has increasingly involved guns, jets, and warships.
Just a week earlier, Chinese forces carried out maneuvers that encircled Taiwan, test fired missiles and sent a record number of warplanes flying into sensitive areas. Then a few days later, American and Canadian warships sailed through the Taiwan Strait, a move the US, long the guarantor of Taiwan’s security, said was to ensure free navigation through the vital shipping lane.
On this night, the Taiwanese military has come to contribute to keeping the peace by firing 30-minutes’ worth of chest-pounding live rounds into the ocean at an imaginary invading force.
As tensions across the Taiwan Strait have increased, so too have discussions of deterrence. Beijing says its drills are a warning against separatists. Washington and Taipei say they are seeking to deter China from trying to change the status-quo.
In August, the administration of newly-installed Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te - who Chinese officials deeply distrust because they view him as pushing to formalize the island’s independence - announced plans to spend a record amount on defense next year. US President Joe Biden’s proposed budget for 2025 includes a request for $500 million to replenish weapons that would be provided to Taiwan.
It is that deterrence that dozens of journalists, equipped with earplugs, were invited to witness at 10 PM Thursday on the island of Penghu.
The islet, which sits roughly 140 kilometers from China’s shores, is near an area where the PLA often operates. On the night of the exercises, waves whipped up by a typhoon far to the south are crashing onto its beaches.
While the maneuvers are part of regular drills conducted on Penghu, this is the first time they’ve included live-fire exercises at night. Chang Chi-ming, Director of the Operations Division at Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense, told reporters at a briefing that they were designed to simulate a potential attack.
They began when a flurry of yellow flares illuminated the night. Tank guns let loose deafening blasts as armored vehicles rattled around and machine gun fire snapped. Officers shouted commands to the hundreds of soldiers taking part. Then, after half an hour, the firing ended and the strong winds from the typhoon dissipated the air so that only a faint smell of diesel lingered.
Later that night, Chen Jyun-yan, who commands a mechanized infantry battalion, spoke to reporters in front of the observation deck from where they’d watched the action. Chen, wearing dark green fatigues, a helmet, thick body armor, and night goggles, explained that the drills were important for familiarizing soldiers with night-vision devices and the nighttime combat environment. What he doesn’t have to say is there will be more drills to come.
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