(Bloomberg) -- Investor Ray Dalio expressed his concerns about the orderly transition of power in the US and whether election results will be accepted by both parties.
When asked about the chances of results being contested, he said: “If it’s a close Trump loss, I would say it’s almost an even probability,” referring to Republican Party candidate Donald Trump.
If “Trump wins, it’s a different story. So I would say, if you put the two together, maybe a one in three,” he said during a panel at the FutureChina Global Forum in Singapore on Friday.
While Dalio has touted the idea before, he said the mere fact that this discussion is taking place underscores the uncertainty in the US. Dalio was building the case that the world is entering a period of greater risks, on the back of enormous debt creation and internal conflicts alongside great power clashes.
“I’m not optimistic of us moving towards a multi-polar world as a natural consequence,” Dalio said, when asked about the clashes between great powers.
When speaking about China, Dalio said the country needs to get its debt restructuring done, which would be challenging. The world’s second-largest economy is struggling to arrest its real estate downturn, weighing down its ability to reach its growth target of about 5%.
Questions are also arising on whether it’s still glorious to be rich in the country, he said. “Greater clarity in policies would be important,” regarding this issue, Dalio added. China’s high profile entrepreneurs and ultra rich have been under the spotlight since President Xi Jinping took power and unleashed a regulatory crackdown denting growth in internet, property and financial sectors.
In the technology race, Dalio said China is “a bit behind” when it comes to generative artificial intelligence.
Dalio’s family office will keep its investment in China to maintain its percentage in the portfolio, he said. While the performance of equities in the country has been poor in recent years, he added that his bond investments have done well and offset the declines.
--With assistance from Yi Wei Wong.
(Updates with more comments from Dalio throughout.)
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