(Bloomberg) -- While China isn’t enamored with either US presidential candidate, conversations in Beijing indicate a clear preference for the continuity of Kamala Harris over the unpredictability of Donald Trump.
US-China ties have stabilized over the past year, even as major divisions persist over issues including Taiwan, the South China Sea and President Joe Biden’s export controls on advanced chips and other technology. A big part of that has been regular, low-profile talks between Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi and US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan.
China sees the US relationship as not great, but also better than a few years ago when all communication was cut after Nancy Pelosi visited Taiwan and then the Biden administration shot down an alleged spy balloon flying over the US. The discussions with Sullivan, in places ranging from Vienna to Bangkok, have helped manage conflict and paved the way for another meeting between Biden and President Xi Jinping expected later this year.
For China, a Harris presidency would allow Xi’s government to build on that foundation and provide a somewhat stable external environment as officials focus on reviving an economy beset by deflationary pressures stemming from efforts to cool down an overheated property bubble. One major risk to that strategy is Trump, who has threatened to impose tariffs on China as high as 60% — a level that would decimate trade between the world’s biggest economies.
“It’s a common view among Chinese experts that Harris means more continuity, at least in the first one or two years of her presidency,” said Zhu Junwei, a former researcher in the People’s Liberation Army who is now director of American research at Grandview Institution in Beijing. “While Trump means a wider scope of possibilities, better or worse, with lots of surprises and potentially more trouble for China, the US itself and its allies, and even the whole world.”
China doesn’t want to be seen as trying to influence the election, and US officials say they’ve yet to see much worrying activity even as they consistently warn Beijing not to meddle in the November presidential vote. Earlier this month, however, officials from the Office of the Director of National Intelligence said China was looking to influence congressional races with candidates perceived to threaten its interests on issues like Taiwan.
When asked about remarks by Harris or Trump at daily briefings held by the Foreign Ministry in Beijing, spokespeople regularly refuse to comment while saying they oppose efforts to make China a campaign issue.
At a recent public lecture in Singapore, Chen Dongxiao — president of Shanghai Institutes for International Studies and an adviser to China’s government — said that while views in China vary, there’s consensus that “the second Trump administration would likely bring a greater uncertainty, instability and unpredictability compared with a Kamala Harris presidency.”
China’s eagerness to further improve ties with the US was evident when Sullivan traveled to Beijing in August for talks with Wang and Xi. The question US officials heard over and over was: Why can’t we just be friends?
Biden’s team left the more than 10 hours of meetings — some of them over a seven-course meal — with the impression that Beijing wanted to stabilize the relationship ahead of the US election. Few questions were asked about a potential Harris administration, and the US team did not want to preview what policies she’d pursue.
But Sullivan and his team emphasized that Harris helped craft and execute the Indo-Pacific policies of the Biden administration, which has seen alliances in the region counter Beijing economically and in the national security space. At a press briefing afterward, Sullivan pointed out that Harris had previously met both Xi and Premier Li Qiang, and she “shares President Biden’s view that responsibly managing this competition, so it doesn’t veer into conflict or confrontation, is essential.”
“They recognize that elections are sensitive periods and transitions are sensitive periods, and responsible management through an election and transition is important,” Sullivan said of China. “That’s something we believe as well.”
‘Clear Eyed’
Morgan Finkelstein, national security spokeswoman for the Harris campaign, said the vice president “is clear eyed about the threats posed by China, and as president, she will ensure the United States wins the competition for the 21st century.”
“She will stand up against China’s efforts to undermine global stability and prosperity,” Finkelstein said. “She will work closely with our allies and partners to take on these challenges while also investing in our own sources of strength.”
Chinese officials have seemed much more interested in Harris’ policies and personnel after the September debate, a person familiar with the embassy’s engagement in Washington said. It’s still not clear exactly what Harris would do on China policy, but during the debate she blasted Trump for allowing the sale of advanced technology to Chinese firms and thanking Xi during the early days of the Covid-19 pandemic.
Still, she also criticized her opponent for starting a trade war and likened tariffs to a “Trump sales tax” that would raise prices across the board for middle-class families. That suggests she would avoid any destabilizing moves to halt Chinese exports, one of the main pillars keeping China’s economy steady as consumption remains sluggish.
“China is salivating at the thought of taking advantage of Kamala’s weakness and ineptitude,” said Brian Hughes, a senior adviser to the Trump campaign.
Rush Doshi, an assistant professor at Georgetown University who served as deputy senior director for China and Taiwan on the National Security Council from 2021 to 2024, said some people in China were asking Western officials and scholars whether Trump’s comments suggesting the US might not defend Taiwan may be giving Beijing a green light to use force against the island.
‘Frenzy Mode’
“Beijing’s perspective depends on the timeframe,” Doshi said. “They’re anxious Trump brings unpredictability over the short run but are more confident that he will accelerate American decline over the long run, in part by undercutting American alliances. In contrast, they see Harris continuing technology controls and alliance building that put Beijing at serious long-term disadvantage.”
For now, conversations in Beijing suggest a desire among Xi’s government to continue with the more stable diplomatic ties under Biden over the past few years.
“No one wants to ruin those efforts and choose the frenzy mode, at least from the Chinese perspective,” said Zhu from Grandview, which regularly hosts dialogues with diplomats and visiting delegations from the US, Europe and other places. “If someone says Trump is better because he will do more harm to the US and its allies, I think he must be joking.”
--With assistance from Stephanie Lai.
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