(Bloomberg) -- Bank of Japan Board Member Seiji Adachi emphasized the need for taking a gradual approach to raising the benchmark interest rate, in comments that will likely cement views in the market that authorities will stand pat when they gather to set policy this month.
“What we need to be careful of, in a gradual rate hike process, is that we raise it extremely gradually while keeping financial conditions accommodative” until the price trend gets to 2%, Adachi said Wednesday in a speech to local business leaders in Kagawa, on the island of Shikoku, Japan.
Adachi, a noted dove on the board, was speaking two weeks before authorities convene to consider policy on Oct. 31, with economists widely expecting a hold. Some have pushed their expectations for the BOJ’s next hike to January after Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba voiced support for monetary easing on his first full day in office earlier this month.
Adachi declined to offer a timeline for the next move when asked about it during an afternoon press conference.
“I’m not thinking about any particular month for another rate hike,” Adachi told reporters. “We should proceed cautiously” by considering the risks of being too late or too early.
While Adachi’s emphasis on the gradual pace of tightening could boost market speculation that there will be no more rate increases this year, it doesn’t rule out a move in December, according to Yuichi Kodama, chief economist at Meiji Yasuda Research Institute.
“There weren’t high expectations for the October meeting anyway, but this offers another confirmation there won’t be a rate hike this time,” Kodama said. “Still, if the prospect of a US soft landing increases and financial markets remain relatively calm, I think there is a good chance for a rate hike in December.”
Data Friday are expected to show consumer inflation slowed to 2.3% in September. That would be the slowest pace since April, while also stretching to streak of months at or above the BOJ’s 2% target to 30.
While economic data warrant policy normalization, there’s also a risk that an overly rapid pace of rate hikes could send the economy back into deflation, Adachi said.
The yen briefly gained in the morning after Adachi said conditions had been met for policy normalization, but the move was later reversed as speculators unwound some long yen positions, according to Hideki Shibata, senior strategist at Tokai Tokyo Intelligence Lab Co.
Japan’s currency has weakened in recent weeks as prospects for a narrowing US-Japan interest rate gap dimmed somewhat. Even so, Adachi flagged the risk that a strong yen could impede the BOJ’s attempts to achieve sustained inflation after the Federal Reserve kicked off its easing cycle last month.
“There is a possibility that a correction of the weak yen could gain momentum,” Adachi said. “That could exert downward pressures on inflation especially for goods.”
Adachi said it’s hard to determine where exactly the neutral rate for Japan should be. One board member said it should be at least 1%, indicating that the bank has room to raise rates even as it seeks to keep financial conditions easy overall.
“I think it’s OK to use the most cautious estimate” of around 1% at this point, Adachi said. Asked about the topic at the news conference, he said a neutral rate can change along with economic developments.
Central banks in industrialized nations are all moving toward neutral policies, with most of them bringing rates lower toward that end. Fed Bank of Dallas President Lorie Logan stressed earlier this week that US policymakers should take a gradual approach as they ease policy settings.
Adachi said that even with the Fed in an easing cycle, it doesn’t necessarily impede BOJ rate hikes as a rise in service prices is taking a root, and Fed policy has a particular impact on goods prices.
--With assistance from Masahiro Hidaka.
(Updates with economist’s comments)
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