(Bloomberg) -- Wealthy, democratic and strategically located off the Chinese coast, Taiwan has long been the most volatile issue between the US and China. Washington and Beijing have avoided serious conflict by leaving unsettled the question of who actually owns the island. But it’s becoming harder to avoid as China’s military ratchets up exercises near what President Xi Jinping views as his country’s lost territory. Standing in the way are the US Pacific Fleet and Taiwanese voters, who have emphatically rejected closer ties with Beijing in three straight elections.
Why is Taiwan so important?
Empires have jockeyed over Taiwan for centuries, with occupations by the Spanish, Dutch and China’s Qing dynasty. After the Qing’s surrender of Taiwan to the Japanese following a humiliating military defeat in 1895, later generations of Chinese, including Xi’s, adopted “reunification” as a rallying cry. To the US and Japan, Taiwan is a vital stronghold in a string of archipelagos that they rely upon to contain China and safeguard trade routes. Taiwan has thrived under American protection to become a critical supplier of semiconductors and other high-tech goods. Today, the island of 23.5 million people is also among Asia’s most vibrant democracies, a rejoinder to Communist Party arguments that Western political structures are incompatible with Chinese culture.
Why is the island in dispute?
The fight dates to the end of the Chinese Civil War in 1949, when Chiang Kai-shek — leader of the Nationalist Party that ruled China after the overthrow of the Qing dynasty in 1912 — abandoned the mainland to Mao Zedong’s Communists. The US backed Chiang as China’s rightful leader until then-President Richard Nixon sought to establish ties with Beijing in the 1970s. The result was the “One China policy,” in which Washington recognized the People’s Republic as the “sole legal government of China,” without clarifying its position on Taiwan’s sovereignty. China agreed to tolerate informal US relations with Taipei, including arms sales under certain conditions, but has since affirmed the right to take Taiwan by force to prevent its formal independence.
Why have tensions risen?
The 2016 election of Tsai Ing-wen as president upended Beijing’s efforts to deepen economic and social ties with the island. Tsai’s Democratic Progressive Party rejects the notion Taiwan is part of China and seeks greater US ties to reduce reliance on the mainland. Beijing responded to her election by cutting off communication, curbing travel, resuming efforts to lure away Taiwan’s few remaining diplomatic partners and pressing multinationals to revise policies that treat Taiwan as a country.
Tsai was elected to a second term in 2020 and was succeeded in May 2024 by her vice president, Lai Ching-te, who once described himself as a “political worker for Taiwanese independence.” He toned down that stance as Lai’s deputy, saying Taiwan is already a de facto sovereign country in need of greater international recognition. Lai has vowed to continue working with the US and other democracies to maintain the status quo. He has also indicated he would stand up to the challenges posed by China, adding neither side of the Taiwan Strait was subordinate to the other.
In addition:
- China launched military drills around the island following Lai’s inauguration, and after visits by Taiwanese officials to the US and visits by US officials to Taiwan. It has also significantly ramped up military incursions into Taiwan’s air defense identification zone on a regular basis.
- Taiwan reported that in mid-October 2024, China flew a record 111 warplanes across a US-drawn boundary in the strait separating the sides to coincide with Biejing holding large-scale military drills around the island.
- US President Joe Biden has repeatedly used language that appears to commit the US to a greater role in any Taiwan conflict than required by law. In September 2022, he was even more explicit, saying the US would commit US military forces in the event of an “unprecedented attack” by China. That appeared to be a significant departure from the traditional US policy of “strategic ambiguity,” which aims to deter China by being vague about US intentions. White House officials insisted that US policy toward the island hadn’t changed.
- Chinese officials have begun to assert in meetings with their American counterparts that the Taiwan Strait isn’t international waters, fueling concern Beijing might become more assertive in trying to deter the US Navy from sailing in the waterway. China has also sanctioned a former US congressman who supported Taipei and hit US defense companies with symbolic sanctions.
Where could the dispute lead?
A US-China clash over Taiwan has re-emerged as one of the world’s biggest geopolitical risks, according to defense analysts. While the two nuclear-armed powers have plenty of incentives to avoid war, China’s rapid military rise has increased the risk of miscalculation. It fired “carrier killer” missiles into the South China Sea in August 2020, in an apparent warning that its military could threaten the ships Washington has long relied on to project power. One Chinese diplomat said in 2017 that an American warship docking in Taiwan could be grounds for an attack. Chinese foreign policy officials have also accused the US and other countries it deems to have shown too much support for Taiwan of “playing with fire” by defying Beijing over the island.
How has the US responded?
Biden’s predecessor, Donald Trump, oversaw a dramatic expansion of ties with the government in Taipei, including the first fighter jet sale in three decades. The Biden administration has sought to maintain that shift, criticizing what it says are China’s “aggressive actions” in the Taiwan Strait. It has held trade talks with Taipei, approved arms sales and conducted naval drills in nearby waters. The Biden administration says it is pushing “intense diplomacy” with China to minimize the potential for conflict, pointing to talks between Biden and Xi, including a face-to-face summit in California in 2023 and a telephone call in April 2024. More recent comments from Trump have cast some doubt over the US commitment to defend Taiwan, should he succeed in his bid for reelection. In July, he questioned whether the US has a duty to defend the island and said, “I think Taiwan should pay us for defense.”
What does China want?
Although the Communist Party has never ruled Taiwan, it views control over the island as essential to completing its goal of reversing China’s “century of humiliation” by colonial powers. Xi has shown a willingness to assert such sovereignty claims from the South China Sea to the Himalayan Plateau and Hong Kong, where China has cracked down on opposition and imposed strict security laws following pro-democracy protests. Polls reveal a steadily rising share of Taiwanese in favor of independence — the thing that’s most likely to provoke a military move by China on the island. Almost a quarter of the population supported immediate or eventual independence, according to an April 2024 survey. Those in favor of unification with China fell to less than 8%.
--With assistance from Brendan Scott, Cindy Wang and Yian Lee.
©2024 Bloomberg L.P.