(Bloomberg) -- Canadian convenience store operator Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc. still has room to increase its $47 billion bid for Seven & i Holdings Co., but any further boost is likely to be small, analysts say.
Couche-Tard made a second offer to Seven & i last month at $18.19 per share as it tries to engage the Japanese retailer in deal talks, people familiar with the matter told Bloomberg News. No substantive negotiations have taken place yet, the people said.
The proposal is about 20% higher than an earlier approach by Couche-Tard and represents a 53% premium to Seven & i’s share price in mid-August, before the news became public.
The Canadian company’s latest bid values Seven & i at about seven times earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, once potential synergies and divestitures are taken into account, TD Cowen analyst Michael Van Aelst said in a report to investors. That’s close to the ceiling of what Couche-Tard usually pays in acquisitions, he said.
“Historically, Couche-Tard’s post-synergy multiple has not exceeded seven times, so we believe Couche-Tard would be unlikely to offer something much higher unless access to Seven & i’s data room is granted and leads to higher synergy expectations than we assume,” he wrote.
Couche-Tard hasn’t said anything publicly about its second offer, but last month it declared that it’s “ready and willing to enter into an appropriate non-disclosure agreement to advance friendly discussions” and find more value.
Tyler Tebbs, head of research company Tebbs Capital in Canada, said in a note to clients that he wouldn’t be surprised if a “modest kiss” of about 10% is needed, which would take the offer to around $20 (¥2,986) per share.
Couche-Tard’s willingness to go higher would depend on its own estimates of the costs it can wring out of Seven & i, as well as projections on what it can get by selling assets, Tebbs wrote. Couche-Tard’s primary interest is in acquiring tens of thousands of convenience stores, including the 7-Eleven chain, but its Japanese target also has other assets, including supermarkets and a bank.
Couche-Tard shares fell 0.9% on Wednesday in Toronto, closing at C$73.79.
New merger guidelines aimed at opening Japan to more foreign investment might help Couche-Tard in its quest, as they require corporate boards to give serious consideration to legitimate takeover offers. Seven & i said in a news release that it has received a revised proposal and “will continue to act in the best interest of its shareholders and other stakeholders of the company.”
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