(Bloomberg) -- A day before it marks a year since the deadly Oct. 7 attacks by Hamas, Israel is locked into a multi-front war with no clear end, sending troops back to northern Gaza and keeping up intense aerial attacks and a limited ground maneuver in Lebanon.
At the same time, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government is weighing how to respond to Iran, which launched a salvo of almost 200 ballistic missiles at the Jewish state last week. Security forces in Israel and abroad are also on high alert for potential terror attacks from Iranian proxies on Monday’s symbolic date.
Israel’s military launched an aerial and ground offensive in Gaza overnight, thought to be the largest in months, underlining the complexity of defeating Hamas a year after the militant group stormed into Israel, killing 1,200 people.
The Hamas-run health ministry in Gaza said 26 people died after two strikes on Deir al Balah targeted a former school and mosque that are now shelters for the displaced. The Israeli military said the structures were being used as Hamas command centers, intentionally embedded within civilian infrastructure.
In all, more than 41,000 people have been killed in Gaza in the past year, according to the health ministry, which doesn’t distinguish between civilian and combatant casualties. More than 1,500 people have been killed in Israeli airstrikes on Lebanon in recent weeks and around one million have been displaced, according to Lebanese officials.
In northern Gaza, ground forces launched an operation in Jabaliya after issuing an evacuation order thought to be the largest since the early months of the war.
Leaflets ordering residents to leave were dropped from the air, and the IDF announced the opening of two main evacuation routes toward the humanitarian area in Al-Mawasi, which it said has been extended. Potential evacuation areas in northern Gaza were also specified.
The Israeli army said there were indications of “terrorists and terror infrastructure in the area of Jabaliya, as well as efforts by Hamas to rebuild its operational capabilities in the area.” The Israeli Air Force struck dozens of military targets in order to assist ground troops.
The newly-revived offensive in Gaza underlines Hamas’ ability to regroup, at least partially. Although Israel has widely disrupted the group’s military infrastructure over the past year, it hasn’t achieved the goal of dismantling its governing capabilities. Israel also hasn’t managed to bring home some 100 hostages taken by Hamas on Oct. 7 and still held in Gaza. About half of the hostages are thought to be alive.
In Lebanon overnight, Israel conducted what it said were “targeted strikes” on Beirut aimed at Hezbollah weapons storage facilities and terrorist infrastructure sites.
Hamas and Hezbollah, both backed by Iran, are considered by the US to be terrorist groups.
In the past two weeks, Israel has mounted a de facto air, ground and naval siege to prevent Iran from smuggling new weapons and munitions supplies to Hezbollah. The Israeli Air Force has conducted hundreds of aerial strikes focused mainly on Beirut’s southern suburbs, as well as on south Lebanon and the eastern part of Bekaa, which connects Lebanon and Syria.
In their ground maneuver started last week, Israeli troops are operating in villages close to the nations’ border, and are said to have dismantled some 2,000 Hezbollah targets — including weapons and underground infrastructure — that had been planned for use by Hezbollah’s Radwan Forces in an Oct. 7-style invasion of Israel.
IDF spokesman Daniel Hagari said late Saturday that 440 Hezbollah operatives – 30 of them commanders of various ranks – were killed from the air and on the ground.
Hezbollah has launched almost 1,000 rockets and missiles at vast regions across Israel’s north in recent days in what’s seen as some level of rehabilitation of its firing capabilities. Central Israel has been kept out of Hezbollah’s target range apart from a lone attack.
Hundreds of thousands of Lebanese citizens have left their homes in south Lebanon since hostilities started, and at a faster pace in recent weeks. Israel has added the safe return of at least 60,000 displaced residents in the north to its war goals.
At this point, the biggest international concern is Israel’s expected retaliation on Iran for attacking the Jewish state with a barrage of 200 ballistic missiles last week.
The IDF on Saturday said two bases - in south and central Israel respectively - were hit during last week’s attack but that operational capabilities hadn’t been damaged.
“The Iranians have not even ‘touched’ the IAF’s capabilities — not a single squadron has been damaged, not a single aircraft has been damaged, there is not a single runway that is out of order and there is no disruption in our operations,” Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant said on Sunday.
Michael Kurilla, commander of US Central Command (Centcom), arrived in Israel on Saturday for meetings with Israel’s security chiefs. The US is reluctant for Israel to strike Iran’s nuclear facilities or oil operations, which could trigger a wider regional conflict and a surge in oil prices. Other targets said to be under consideration are military, or associated with the Iranian regime.
Ahead of Monday’s commemoration day in Israel, Hagari said troop levels have been reinforced and are ready. Eyes are also on the West Bank, where Israel struck down 14 Hamas operatives last week that it said were planning to carry out an attack inspired by Oct. 7. Seven Israelis were killed in a terror attack in Tel Aviv last week that originated from the West Bank.
On Sunday, a 25-year-old woman was killed and several injured in what police called a “suspected terror attack” at the central bus station in Beersheba.
The US Federal Bureau of Investigation and Department of Homeland Security warned in a joint announcement that the one-year mark since the Hamas attacks “may be a motivating factor for violent extremists and hate crime perpetrators to engage in violence or threaten public safety.”
--With assistance from Alisa Odenheimer.
(Updates with death tolls in Gaza, Lebanon, bus station attack from fifth paragraph.)
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