Lack of China Tech Short Covering Means Rally Is Fresh Buying

(Bloomberg) -- Chinese tech stocks have had a tremendous rally since the nation announced its stimulus spree. And all signs point to fresh buying being the main cause.

Short positions on American Depositary Receipts of major companies including Alibaba Group Holding Ltd., JD.com Inc. and Baidu Inc. haven’t changed dramatically in recent days, according to S3 Partners and JPMorgan Chase & Co. If the bears were forced out of their bets, the rally could get further momentum.

“The sharp rally in Chinese ADRs over the past week has been mostly the result of fresh buying rather than short covering,” JPMorgan Chase & Co. strategists including Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou wrote in a note this week. “Short covering in individual stocks appears to have played only a modest role in the Chinese equity rally.”

The Hang Seng Tech Index, which tracks 30 Chinese tech companies listed in Hong Kong, has soared more than 45% in less than four weeks, including a record surge in the six days through Wednesday. Alibaba, JD.com and food-delivery company Meituan were among those that had some of their best trading days in years as investors swept up in a buying spree after the Chinese government announced measures to stimulate the troubled domestic economy. The tech gauge climbed on Friday for the seventh in eight days.

While short sellers have incurred mark-to-market losses, there hasn’t been a rush to cover bearish bets, Ihor Dusaniwsky, managing director of predictive analytics for S3 wrote in an Oct. 1 report. The short interest for Alibaba, JD.com and Baidu had remained around 2% to 3% of shares available. Should the rally continue, though, expect a “significant amount” of short covering, which will push up stock prices even further, Dusaniwsky warned.

“The data is surprising as the magnitude of the bounce will normally cause shorts to be wiped out many times over and forced-covered in a traditional risk monitoring and control framework,” said Han Piow Liew, a fund manager at Maitri Asset Management Pte. “The latest round of stimulus pivot by the Chinese government shows that the leadership has significant zeal and intent to turn things around.”

Chinese tech stocks have had a tough few years. While the nation’s economy weakened, a government crackdown on the sector and fierce e-commerce competition hurt results at the firms that once were market darlings.

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Short sellers who are holding on to their positions may be doing so because they’re skeptical on the recent rally, according to Sonija Li, an analyst at MIB Securities Hong Kong Ltd. Morningstar Inc.’s Chelsey Tam notes that consumers’ “downtrading trend” is still pronounced in sectors including e-commerce, travel and food delivery.

Still, when it comes to the options market, bulls are alive and well. Bets for gains on a US exchange-traded fund tracking China’s large-cap stocks are near their priciest ever relative to bearish wagers after record call trading. Alibaba’s and JD.com — companies that have seen a burst of bullish options trading recently — are among its biggest components.