(Bloomberg) -- China’s leaders are aiming for economic growth of around 5% this year, an ambitous goal given sluggish consumer spending, a global backlash against Chinese goods and a still shaky property market. In September, with the target sliding out of reach, Beijing unleashed a package of stimulus measures including interest rate cuts to turn things around. Success is not assured. Persistent deflationary pressures have also sparked a discussion about whether the world’s second-biggest economy is headed for a Japan-style malaise of stagnation after 30 years of unprecedented growth.
How is the downturn playing out?
As the calendar turned to autumn, the vast majority of global banks were expecting China’s economy to miss this year’s goal. Deflationary pressure was on the rise, with new-home prices falling the most since 2014 and consumer confidence at the lowest in over a year and a half. The government continued to lean on manufacturing and exports to drive a recovery. Fewer than a fifth of economists surveyed by Bloomberg were predicting gross domestic product would expand by 5% in 2024, as analysts at lenders such as Bank of America Corp. questioned why fiscal and monetary policy wasn’t doing more to revive domestic demand. Trade also remained a risk: While exports reached their highest value in nearly two years, Beijing was facing a pushback from countries worried over the impact of cheap goods from the world’s biggest manufacturing nation. Top officials like Vice Finance Minister Liao Min have defended China’s industrial prowess by saying it helps the world fight climate change and contain inflation.
Why is that a problem?
A lot of the world’s jobs and production depend on China. The IMF forecasts China will remain the top contributor to global growth through 2028, with a share expected to represent 22.6% — double that of the US. Mineral-exporting countries such as Brazil and Australia are particularly sensitive to the ups and downs of Chinese infrastructure and property investment. For example, the domestic downturn left too much steel for the local economy to absorb, pushing up exports of the metal, which contributed to lower prices globally and plunged companies such as Chile into distress. Weak demand in China is also hurting the bottom line of automakers ranging from Stellantis NV to Aston Martin. Meanwhile, increasingly frugal consumers have sent sales diving for global brands like Starbucks Corp. and Estée Lauder Cos.
Where is the trouble?
China’s $18 trillion economy has been struggling across a range of sectors. Manufacturing activity, as of September, has been in contraction since April 2023, bar three months. Exacerbating the outlook are US efforts to cut China off from supplies of advanced semiconductors and other technologies set to drive future economic growth — an approach that officials in Washington call “strategic competition” and China decries as “containment.” Confidence at home became so fragile that China’s bank loans to the real economy shrank this summer for the first time in 19 years. The balance sheets of cash-strapped local governments, which are already laden with hidden debt, are among the casualties of slumping property prices. Their revenue from land sales has been declining at a record clip, making it harder to reverse a drop in budget expenditure just when economy is in dire need of fiscal support.
Where are the post-Covid shoppers?
Optimism was high as China exited pandemic curbs in late 2022 and reopened its borders that the nation would see a rapid recovery in consumer spending fueled by “revenge shopping,” eating out and travel. That boost failed to materialize as people fretted about what weak growth means for unemployment and incomes. The years-long real estate crisis also wiped out an estimated $18 trillion in wealth from households, prompting people to save rather than spend and pushing China into its longest streak of deflation since 1999. Chinese consumption edged up slightly during a major holiday in September, adding to signs the rebound in spending by households still had a way to go. Unemployment remains a concern, made worse by a regulatory crackdown on big technology companies that deprived many young, ambitious graduates of a lucrative career path. The youth jobless rate rose in August for the second straight month to its highest level this year.
What’s going on with property?
Real estate has been the main engine of China’s economic growth since President Xi Jinping came to office a decade ago. The government attempted to crack down on heavily indebted developers in 2020 to reduce risks to the financial system. That pushed house prices down and many weaker companies defaulted. Many developers stopped building homes they had already sold but hadn’t yet delivered, prompting some people to stop paying their mortgages. This turbulence was a wakeup call for many Chinese, who have long considered property a sure-bet investment and used it as a store of wealth. The pain continued into 2024, extending a trend of declines in place since early 2022. In May, China unveiled its most far-reaching attempt to revive the property market. But progress has been slow on plans that include a program to provide 300 billion yuan ($43 billion) of central bank funding to help government-backed firms buy unsold homes from developers. And given the unattractive economics of the plan for local authorities, only a fraction of more than 200 cities urged to participate by the central government are heeding the call to help absorb an excess of housing.
What is China’s government doing?
After long appearing reluctant to take more aggressive measures, the Politburo — consisting of the Communist Party’s most senior 24 officials including Xi — vowed at a September meeting to pursue the annual economic goals and stop declines in the property market. Acting in coordination with the central bank, authorities have cut interest rates, unlocked liquidity to encourage bank lending and pledged up to $340 billion to boost China’s equities market. A major focus of the latest policy push is stabilizing the real estate sector, with measures such as a cut to outstanding mortgage rates and looser curbs in the housing market. The stimulus package may lift growth as much as 1 to 1.1 percentage points over the next four quarters, according to Bloomberg Economics, which estimates this year’s boost at 20 basis points.
Will the latest stimulus effort fix the problem?
The rapid-fire round of stimulus means China could come close to delivering that 5% growth goal and enter 2025 on an upbeat note. But overcoming deflation and reversing the gloom around property will be a tall order. It will depend in large part on the scale of fiscal resources that policymakers decide to commit. An escalating series of trade disputes has the potential to cut into growth. What’s more, massive oversupply of housing means it will take a while for any property stimulus to flow through to actual construction, if it does at all. With a shrinking population and slowing urbanization, there are fewer structural factors driving housing demand. As a result, the country could face an extended period of weak growth while it works out its debt problems, just as Japan did in its so-called lost decade, after the property and stock market bubbles there burst.
©2024 Bloomberg L.P.
