Wall Street on Edge as Mideast Upstages Economy: Markets Wrap

(Bloomberg) -- US stocks churned as traders weighed the prospect of escalating conflict in the Middle East against positive economic data. Crude and the dollar extended advances. 

The S&P 500 fell 0.2% and Nasdaq 100 ended the day marginally lower after choppy trading for much of the morning. The mood on Wall Street soured after puzzling comments from President Joe Biden on if he would support Israel striking Iran’s oil facilities. 

Oil benchmarks surged. Brent crude climbed above $77 a barrel for the longest run of daily gains since August, while West Texas Intermediate passed $73. Investors are concerned that, should Israel strike critical Iranian assets, the Islamic Republic will lash out and escalate the conflict, dragging in more countries and potentially disrupting global energy shipments.

That’s left mainstay US equity benchmarks on course for their first weekly loss in four as the world awaits an Israeli response to Iran’s missile strike. Israel’s warplanes bombed Beirut overnight, after eight of its soldiers were killed in southern Lebanon in battles against Hezbollah. Wall Street’s fear gauge, the VIX, resumed its climb, flashing a warning sign that more stocks volatility lies ahead.

“The VIX is signaling that we are still in the midst of the ‘iffy October’ period,” Fundstrat’s Thomas Lee said. But, he added, with multiple historical factors in the S&P 500’s favor, “we ultimately expect investors to buy this dip.”

Earlier in the session, equities briefly erased losses after a readout showed the US services sector in September expanded at the fastest pace since February 2023. The Institute for Supply Management’s index of services jumped to 54.9, beating estimates. Readings above 50 indicate expansion. 

Other data showed applications for US unemployment benefits rose slightly last week to a level that is consistent with limited number of layoffs. Continuing claims, a proxy for the number of people receiving benefits, were little changed at 1.83 million in the previous week, according to Labor Department data released Thursday.

The readouts “were both solid in September,” according to JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s Abiel Reinhart. Initial jobless claims “on balance continue to look quite low, which is a good sign for the job market,” he wrote in a research note. 

To Michael Metcalfe, head of macro strategy at State Street Global Markets, international conflict has returned as a driver for markets. “There might be a pressure to rebalance, because markets are stretched and I don’t see that as being particularly positive for US equities,” he said. 

Amid all the geopolitical uncertainty, investors are looking for further signals on the health of the US economy, with the monthly payrolls report due on Friday. The unemployment rate is forecast to hold steady at 4.2% in September while payrolls are expected to rise by 150,000. 

“I am of course nervous heading into tomorrow’s jobs report,” Kallum Pickering, chief economist at Peel Hunt, said on Bloomberg Television. “If the unemployment rate ticks up, I wouldn’t be surprised that markets would shift back toward expecting 50 basis points and then it is a question of how the Fed may react.” 

BMO’s Vail Hartman expects Friday’s data to leave the Fed’s next move up in the air; “NFP will do no more than raise or lower the bar for the remaining pre-Fed data to justify supersizing the next rate cut.”

On the labor front, investors are looking for progress in resolving the longshoremen’s strike that’s shuttered critical US ports. According to a Cowen analyst Jason Seidl, who cited a call with a panelist “close to the port strike,” a resolution could be reach by Monday.

In corporate news, Tesla Inc. slid on the departure of a top executive ahead of the unveiling of its driverless robotaxi next week. Levi Strauss shares slumped after the apparel company lowered its revenue growth outlook for the full year. 

Bloomberg’s dollar index gained for a fourth day, bolstered by the rise in Treasury yields. The British pound is on pace for its worst day since 2022 after a Bank of England official suggested the central bank could take a more aggressive approach to lowering interest rates. 

Key events this week: 

Some of the main moves in markets:

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This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.

--With assistance from Winnie Hsu, John Cheng, Chiranjivi Chakraborty, Robert Brand, Margaryta Kirakosian and Sujata Rao.

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