(Bloomberg) -- Chinese shares listed in Hong Kong jumped the most in almost two years as stimulus-induced euphoria swept through the city’s $5.8 trillion market.
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The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index climbed as much as 8.5% before closing up 7.1%, a 13th straight day of gains. Property developers led the rally, with a gauge of the sector surging as much as 47%, while an index of brokerage shares jumped 35%, both record intraday moves. Mainland Chinese markets remain shut until Oct. 8 for a week-long holiday.
“I think the bull market can last three months to half a year,” said Bo Pei, an equity research analyst at US Tiger Securities Inc. “I personally am quite confident.”
Sentiment toward equities in the world’s second-biggest economy has seen a dramatic turnaround since the start of last week as the authorities unveiled a range of stimulus measures that included interest-rate cuts, freeing-up of cash for banks and liquidity support for stocks. Four major cities also eased home-buying curbs and the central bank moved to lower mortgage rates.
There’s growing optimism the blitz of stimulus has brought an end to the three-year slide in Chinese shares that was driven by the stuttering economy and multi-year property crisis. Still, there have been a number of false dawns, most recently a rally that started in February, so investors have ample reason to remain cautious.
So far, the attractive valuations of Chinese stocks are helping to lure investors even after the recent rally.
The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index is still trading at less than 9 times estimated earnings for the next 12 months, only about half that of the S&P 500, data compiled by Bloomberg show.
Brokerages, which are seen as a barometer of risk sentiment, powered ahead amid optimism they will be among the key beneficiaries of the stock-trading frenzy. China Merchants Securities Co. closed up 81%, while Guolian Securities Co. rose almost 40%.
Chinese shares are leading gains in global equity benchmarks over the past month. The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index is the top performer with an advance of 30%, while the Hang Seng Index is second at 27%. The benchmark CSI 300 Index entered a bull market Monday after it posted the biggest daily gain since 2008.
Hedge funds are piling into Chinese stocks at an unprecedented pace, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc. Fast-money funds made record net purchases of Asian stocks in September, led by China and Hong Kong, based on data from the investment bank’s prime brokerage desk.
Billionaire investor David Tepper said last week he is buying more of “everything” related to China, while the world’s biggest money manager, BlackRock Inc., is now overweight Chinese shares. US-based Mount Lucas Management has entered into bullish positions on China exchange-traded funds, while Singapore’s GAO Capital is buying Chinese large cap stocks.
“There’s definitely a resurgence in interest in China and clients have a lot of questions about whether to chase it,” said Vey-Sern Ling, managing director at Union Bancaire Privee in Singapore. “Sentiment on China has turned and equity valuations can potentially re-rate back to historical average levels, which still represents significant upside even after the rally.”
There are signs the broader economy is improving too. China’s railway network saw a record number of trips made on the first day of its week-long holiday, offering early optimism of a pickup in consumer spending.
‘Structural Issues’
Still, there are a number of potential negatives that may stand in the way of further stock gains, according to Raphael Thuin, Paris-based head of capital markets strategies at Tikehau Capital.
“Structural issues, such as a deep crisis of confidence, economic imbalances, excessive leverage, and the unresolved real estate bubble, still present significant challenges,” he said. “We continue to approach investing in China with caution until we see clear signs that these long-term structural issues are being more directly and effectively addressed.”
The impact of the stock rally is also being seen in the currency market.
A gauge of one-month borrowing costs in Hong Kong dollars climbed for an eighth day to the highest since August, a sign liquidity is becoming tighter amid seasonal demand for cash and a surge in stocks. Hong Kong’s currency rose to trade close to the strong end of its trading band and the offshore yuan also strengthened.
Higher Weighting
The stock rally has been so powerful that in just eight days, China has regained the weighting in emerging-market indexes that it lost over the previous 10 months.
The country’s share in MSCI Inc.’s benchmark for developing-nation equities rose to 27.8% at the end of September, the highest since November 2023, according to data compiled by Bloomberg based on stocks listed on mainland, Hong Kong and overseas markets.
“We are turning more positive on China’s economic outlook,” Sylvia Sheng, global multi-asset strategist at JP Morgan Asset Management, wrote in a note. Positive signals from the government and regulators, “should help put a floor on market prices and propel momentum in the equity markets,” she said.
--With assistance from John Cheng, Tian Chen and Julien Ponthus.
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