(Bloomberg) -- Israel had been looking for a chance to kill the leader of Hezbollah.
Its intelligence had long tracked Hassan Nasrallah and it recently learned he planned to move, which would have closed the window of opportunity, according to a senior official who asked not to be identified discussing confidential matters. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu gave the order Friday from his hotel room in New York, just before giving a fiery speech to the United Nations General Assembly that rejected a US-backed push for a cease-fire in Lebanon.
Washington, Israel’s closest ally, got only a last-minute heads up as its latest bid to stop the violence failed. Friday’s strike in southern Beirut was another in a series of dramatic Israeli attacks — from exploding pagers to sweeping air raids — that have left Iran’s main proxy severely debilitated and now leaderless.
After a week of appeals from world leaders at the UN to avoid the risk of all-out war in the Middle East, Israel seems to be doing just the opposite, its warplanes demolishing what Iran and Hezbollah had long set as red lines.
Still, judging by supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s first reaction, Iran is in no rush to escalate. President Masoud Pezeshkian also stopped short of pledging a direct and immediate attack on Israel — and in his international debut at the UN he struck a relatively restrained note.
The U.S. judges that Iran is unlikely to rush into a further escalation because its most valuable proxy — Hezbollah — has been weakened and its missiles and drones proved ineffective against Israel when it attacked directly in April, according to a person familiar with U.S. policy, who asked not to be identified because of the sensitivity of the matter. Both Hezbollah and Iran have been weakened by recent events and have few options, they said.
Netanyahu called Nasrallah’s death “necessary” to his quest to return Israelis in the north who had fled Hezbollah’s attacks over the last 11 months to their homes. But in a video address, he had a warning for his people: “In the coming days, we will face significant challenges.”
The US said it’s beefing up its already-substantial military presence in the region, a clear signal to Tehran about the risk of reacting too aggressively. If they were angry at Israel for the lack of warning of the strike, US officials weren’t sorry to see the death of Nasrallah and the setbacks for Hezbollah, which has killed hundreds of Americans in its four-decade history.
As Israel has pummeled Iranian proxies in Gaza and Lebanon since the Oct. 7 attack by Hamas that killed more than 1,000 Israelis, Tehran’s reaction so far hasn’t spiraled into a broader regional war. A major missile attack in the spring did little damage. Iran seems deterred for the moment by the superior militaries of Israel and its US ally.
“Tehran’s vaunted missile force was shown in April to be ineffective against U.S. and Israeli technology,” said Michael Morell, the former acting director of the Central Intelligence Agency, in an interview. “Now Iran’s second pillar of deterrence – Hezbollah – is being destroyed in front of its eyes. What does that leave them? Where does Iran find deterrence? Perhaps they will seek it in the acquisition of nuclear weapons.”
Two Israeli officials, speaking on condition of anonymity, said Hezbollah still has military capabilities and missiles but with its leadership gone, it’s in crisis and may take time to retaliate. Still, Israel’s military is poised and expecting retaliation as early as Saturday night and preparing for a possible ground operation in Lebanon.
A person familiar with US thinking said it’s hard to predict just how a headless Hezbollah might try to respond, though the group will clearly seek vengeance. The person said the Israeli strikes obviously complicate Washington’s hopes for a cease-fire, with risks of miscalculation growing as each side tries to get in the final blows before any possible deal.
Jordan, Egypt and Gulf states like Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain are happy to see groups like Hamas and now Hezbollah — both classified by the US and the European Union as terrorists — dealt big blows, according to a person who liaises with Arab and Western intelligence services and asked not to be identified to give a candid assessment. The goal, ultimately, is to push Shiite Iran back, regaining the initiative and shifting decision-making in the region to majority-Sunni states.
But Netanyahu’s open defiance of Washington’s calls for restraint has raised fears in some Arab capitals that Israel isn’t accountable to anyone, not even the US, which is its chief arms supplier, the person said.
If Iran does something rash, the US may not be able to control Israel’s response, said one Arab official.
The mounting civilian death toll in the Gaza Strip — where Israel is trying to eradicate Hamas — and now in Lebanon — where Hezbollah is based — has put Arab leaders in a bind given where the sympathies of their populations lie.
The US renewed calls for a diplomatic solution Saturday. Just over a month from a razor-close presidential election, the worsening violence is a growing political challenge for Vice President Kamala Harris in her race against former President Donald Trump.
As Netanyahu made his way back on the Jewish Sabbath, his plane was escorted by two F-35 fighter jets — a sign of some of the heightened security measures the Israelis were taking. The US meanwhile has ordered back some of its diplomats and flights to Beirut have been suspended as the conflict escalates.
With the one-year mark of the Oct. 7 attack nearing, Netanyahu was under pressure both at home and abroad. Families of hostages taken by Hamas want them returned and press for a deal while his far-right coalition partners threaten to topple his government if he buckles.
Killing Nasrallah was essential to Israel’s goal of “changing the balance of power in the region for years,” Netanyahu said. In addition, he said, the more Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar, still hiding in Gaza, “sees that Hezbollah will no longer come to his rescue, the greater the chances of recovering our hostages.”
--With assistance from Iain Marlow and Ethan Bronner.
(Adds analysis of Iran’s position in sixth paragraph)
©2024 Bloomberg L.P.