(Bloomberg) -- A partial gauge of Australian inflation cooled in August as government assistance to cushion the impact of energy costs kicked in, dragging down headline prices.
The consumer price index indicator advanced 2.7% from a year earlier, matching economists’ median estimate, Australian Bureau of Statistics data showed Wednesday. That’s the first time since August 2021 that it has fallen below the 3% upper band of the Reserve Bank’s target.
The trimmed mean core measure, which smooths out volatile items and is the focus of the RBA’s attention, eased to 3.4% from 3.8% a month earlier.
“Both measures of annual underlying inflation in August are the lowest they have been for 2.5 years,” said Michelle Marquardt, ABS head of prices statistics.
The yield on policy sensitive three-year government notes trimmed an intraday gain and the currency retreated from a 19-month high posted earlier in the session.
“Providing the falls in underlying inflation noted today are replicated in the all-important third-quarter inflation numbers, it sets up a dovish pivot from the RBA at its November meeting,” said Tony Sycamore, analyst at IG Markets. The quarterly CPI data is due on Oct. 30.
The data come a day after the RBA’s rate-setting board kept its benchmark at a 12-year high of 4.35%, saying it remains vigilant to upside risks to inflation. Governor Michele Bullock reiterated that she doesn’t expect rate cuts this year and noted that the monthly inflation gauge is “quite volatile,” doesn’t capture all items and can be influenced by one-off or temporary factors.
Bullock said that if Wednesday’s data came in with a 2 in front of it, “that doesn’t mean that we’ve got inflation under control. It doesn’t mean that inflation is sustainably back within the band. It just means it’s back there at the moment,” she told reporters after the September policy meeting.
The RBA’s goal is to bring consumer prices back within its 2%-3% target and ensure they remain there.
What Bloomberg Economics Says...
“Trimmed mean inflation looks like it may be receding faster than the RBA projected. If this shows up again in the September and third-quarter CPI data, the quicker let up in underlying inflation pressures could swing the balance toward a rate cut at the RBA’s Nov. 4-5 meeting”
— James McIntyre, economist.
— For the full note, click here
The RBA’s hawkish message underlines its struggle to rein in prices — the bank having nudged back its timing for core price growth to return to the target midpoint. Australia’s position contrasts with counterparts from New Zealand to the US and the UK that have already embarked on easing cycles.
The RBA adopted a different strategy to contain post-pandemic inflation as it wanted to preserve job gains. Australia hiked less steeply than peers which resulted in its benchmark rate being about 1 percentage point lower than the Federal Reserve’s.
The RBA has kept rates unchanged this year, while highlighting that aggregate demand still exceeds the economy’s supply capacity. The bank’s forecasts show core CPI only returning to the target band in late 2025.
Australian Treasurer Jim Chalmers welcomed Wednesday’s result, saying that while the monthly data can “jump around” a bit, the moderation in the figures is “very heartening.”
The report also showed:
- Housing climbed 2.6%, food and non-alcoholic beverages advanced 3.4% and alcohol and tobacco rose 6.6%
- Federal and state energy rebates drove a record 17.9% fall in electricity prices while fuel was 7.6% lower
- Rents were up 6.8% in the year to August, reflecting tight markets in most major cities
- New dwelling prices, which capture new builds and major renovations, rose 5.1% and have remained around 5% for the past year with builders passing on higher costs for labor and materials, the ABS said
--With assistance from Michael G. Wilson.
(Adds comments from analyst and treasurer.)
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