(Bloomberg) -- Investors should stop prioritizing Chinese stocks listed on the mainland over those trading overseas, according to Morgan Stanley.
The US bank pointed to reduced buying by the so-called national team and lower chances of yuan depreciation as key factors that will undermine the appeal of Chinese shares listed onshore.
“The two biggest supporting factors have shifted significantly over the past couple of months,” Morgan Stanley strategist Laura Wang wrote in a note. The bank had maintained a preference for the mainland-listed shares for at least the last year.
China’s onshore CSI 300 Index has fallen around 6% this year, underperforming the almost 4% rise of the MSCI China Index, which includes stocks listed inside and outside of the country.
Chinese state-linked funds have bought billions of dollars worth of shares to help prop up prices in the country’s domestic stock market. But Morgan Stanley says that the national team’s momentum is slowing down, and these funds are likely to take an “interim break.”
The US bank recently changed its view on the yuan exchange rate, which it now thinks will stabilize at around 7.1 towards year-end, compared with its previous forecast of a depreciation. Although a weakening yuan would lower the value of Chinese stocks in foreign currency terms, it could also increase exports and so give a boost to the wider economy.
Morgan Stanley added that it was seeing more downward revisions in earnings estimates for Chinese A-shares.
How best to manage exposure to China has became a major talking point for bank strategists this year. JPMorgan Chase & Co. recently abandoned its buy recommendation for Chinese stocks, following similar moves by UBS Global Wealth Management and Nomura Holdings Inc. But Barclays Plc strategist Kaanhari Singh sounded a more bullish note last week, telling investors that Chinese stocks were set for a “major breakout.”
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