(Bloomberg) -- Sri Lanka began counting votes in a crucial presidential election that’s likely to determine the fate of the crisis-hit economy and a $3 billion bailout from the International Monetary Fund.
The election comes two years after an economic meltdown and a historic debt default caused widespread political unrest and the ousting of the former strongman leader. The nation’s 17 million voters went to the polls Saturday to choose a president who can steer the economy through a fragile recovery and finalize a debt-restructuring deal that will allow the IMF to disburse more funding that the country desperately needs.
Counting of ballots began after polls closed at 4 p.m. local time. The Election Commission of Sri Lanka said it may begin releasing early results by midnight. A winner will likely be known only by Sunday, although an uncertain result may cause delays.
While a record 38 candidates were on the ballot, the race has been a tight one among three leading contenders: incumbent President Ranil Wickremesinghe, opposition leader Sajith Premadasa, and Anura Kumara Dissanayake, a leftist politician backed by protesters who led the uprisings in 2022.
Voter turnout was relatively high at 75%, local media reported. The Election Commission said Saturday was one of the most peaceful voting days in the country’s history. Even so, the president ordered a nationwide curfew from 10 p.m. to 6 a.m. during the counting period and release of results. Monday was also declared a public holiday.
Wickremesinghe, 75, has faced a tough election bid with voters deeply unhappy about the austerity measures and higher taxes that he imposed after helping to broker the IMF bailout and stabilize the economy.
Casting his vote in Colombo earlier Saturday, the president said he’d taken the country out of bankruptcy and could deliver a “developed economy, developed social system and a developed political system.”
Among his main challengers is Dissanayake, 55, who leads the National People’s Power, a coalition of leftist political parties and groups backed by protesters who ousted then-leader Gotabaya Rajapaksa from power two years ago.
Some opinion polls have put Dissanayake ahead of his competitors in the election, and his rallies have been drawing significant crowds in recent weeks on pledges to fight corruption. He’s vowed to reopen negotiations with the IMF, a worry for investors who expect that could delay the disbursement of funds from the Washington-lender.
Rizvie Salih, an executive committee member of Dissanayake’s NPP coalition, said in an interview Saturday that he expected a peaceful election with their candidate coming out on top.
The main opposition leader, 57-year-old Premadasa, has also vowed to reopen negotiations with the IMF to ease the burden of the loan conditions on the poor. Premadasa heads a political party that split from Wickremesinghe’s in 2020, and draws much of his support from poorer Sri Lankans and the Tamil minority. He’s also vowed to boost exports to spur growth and tackle corruption.
Observers and some opinion surveys suggest the election may go to a run-off for the first time since the system was introduced in 1982. Under Sri Lanka’s election rules, each voter casts three ballots in order of preference.
A candidate needs more than 50% of first-preference votes to win. If no candidate reaches that mark, then voters’ second and third preferences are added to the count, and the person with the most votes is declared the winner.
“This is like choosing the best devil among a pack of devils,” Anura Bandu, a 59-year-old retiree, said Saturday as he cast his vote in a Colombo suburb.
Investors are bracing for turmoil in financial markets as the IMF loan program hangs in the balance. Sri Lanka will need to meet certain economic targets before the IMF approves the next tranche of funding, estimated at about $350 million.
“There is a worry about negative repercussions if there is an effort to tinker or renegotiate either the current IMF program or the proposed agreement with debt holders,” said Navin Ratnayake, head of research at Colombo-based John Keells.
--With assistance from Sudhi Ranjan Sen and Dan Strumpf.
(Updates with vote counting starting from first paragraph.)
©2024 Bloomberg L.P.