(Bloomberg) -- The UK public significantly overestimates how many migrants are coming to the country as asylum-seekers, a misconception that skews conversation around migration policy, a think tank study found.
Britons on average think asylum-seekers make up 37% of migrants to the UK — more than five times the actual figure of 7%, the study from the British Future think tank and research firm Ipsos found. One in five people think asylum makes up more than half of total UK immigration, with a higher proportion among supporters of the right-wing Reform UK and Conservative parties.
The findings come as the UK remains starkly divided on migration. Riots which swept across the country over the summer were fueled by anti-migrant rhetoric, after net migration numbers hit a record of 764,000 in 2022. But large chunks of the economy are dependent on migrant workers, and the Labour government has signaled it may reverse measures taken by the former Conservative administration to try to reduce numbers coming to the UK.
Labour is reviewing the Tory policy requiring Britons to earn at least £38,700 ($51,000) to bring a foreign spouse to the UK, and has ditched former premier Rishi Sunak’s controversial plan to deport asylum-seekers who arrive in small boats across the English Channel to Rwanda.
Public perception is also at odds with the data on the flow of migrants into the country, as well as the make-up, according to the study. The survey of 3,000 adults found half expected net migration to increase over the next 12 months, in contrast to statistics which suggest it will fall.
“These skewed perceptions give us an unbalanced debate about the immigration we actually have,” said Sunder Katwala, director of British Future. “Pressure on the government will be focused on Channel crossings, where a visible lack of control drives public concern – and the government will need to find a workable approach that combines compassion with control.”
Still, expectations that net migration will rise should give Prime Minister Keir Starmer “breathing room,” British Future said in the report, given he’s likely to exceed those expectations. The Conservative government’s policies are still filtering through the numbers, including a ban on most international students from bringing dependents into the country.
Net migration soared since then-Conservative leader David Cameron pledged in the run-up to the 2010 general election that he would bring numbers into the “tens of thousands.” Part of the driving force behind Britain’s departure from the European Union was due to anti-migrant sentiment, as voters blamed incomers for the UK’s stagnating living standards and lack of jobs.
Now, greater numbers of EU migrants are leaving the UK than arriving — but they have been more than replaced by vast numbers coming from the rest of the world. Most have come through government-sanctioned routes, such as on work visas, student visas or fleeing conflict in Ukraine and Hong Kong.
British Future’s research found the public underestimated the number of student and worker migrants, and that most people struggled to identify what type of migration they would cut. Half want more migrant doctors, and 52% want more migrant nurses. Bankers were the only occupation where more than 30% of the public supported a reduction in migrant numbers.
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