(Bloomberg) -- North Korean leader Kim Jong Un has shown new signs he’s girding for battle by saying the time is over for peaceful reunification with South Korea and he has the right to annihilate his neighbor. To back up his threats, Kim has shown off a plant to enrich uranium for bombs while ramping up strike capabilities with a blistering pace of tests for his newest ballistic missiles — making them bigger, deadlier and better able to strike the US and its allies in Asia. Washington has accused him of sending munitions to Russia in return for aid that bolsters his state’s military and economy. Kim has also brought his young daughter to displays of military might, signaling there’s another generation of leaders for the family dynasty, forged in the Cold War, that will depend on nuclear weapons for its survival.
What is Kim working on?
An array of ballistic missiles designed to carry nuclear warheads to hit US allies South Korea and Japan, longer-range rockets that could strike American bases in Guam, as well as intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) designed to deliver an atomic strike on New York or Washington. Kim has also modernized his existing missile arsenal, steering away from the Soviet-era Scud variants that had been a staple toward rockets that rely heavily on domestic technology and can be manufactured despite sanctions. He’s also seeking to miniaturize warheads for strikes in the region and increase the power of warheads for an ICBM.
- Kim has rolled out new solid-fuel ballistic missiles that are easier to move, hide and fire than many liquid-fuel versions. He’s launched more than 150 since May 2019. The most powerful of these include an ICBM test-fired successfully three times in 2023 that could be stored in hardened silos underground or rolled out on a transporter to be quickly shot off. The bulk of the new rockets have been nuclear-capable KN-23 missiles that can strike all of South Korea — and US forces stationed there — within a matter of minutes.
- Kim has also been sending missiles to Russia to help President Vladimir Putin in his assault on Ukraine, the US and Kyiv have said. This is the first time the missiles have been battle-tested, which could provide Kim with data on adjustments needed to make them more capable of avoiding interception.
- Putin met Kim in September 2023 and pledged to help North Korea’s space program. Kim aimed to launch three spy satellites in 2024 to help him keep an eye on US troops in the region and refine his target list. A first attempt in May failed when the rocket carrying the satellite blew up shortly after liftoff.
- Priorities for 2024 appear to include improving his ability to strike US military bases in Japan and Guam with intermediate-range ballistic missiles that deploy a warhead capable of maneuvering at high speeds to evade interceptors as it makes its way to a target. He is also coordinating his systems for simultaneous launches of mutiple missiles.
- Kim has attended tests of mutiple rocket launchers designed to strike Seoul, with South Korea saying the displays may also be intended for Putin as a sales pitch for the Kremlin’s war machine.
Could Kim really hit the US?
He appears to have acquired that capability after successfully testing an ICBM in 2017, the Hwasong-15. He then rolled out the Hwasong-17 at a military parade in 2020. It’s a liquid-fueled rocket that experts said is designed to hold multiple warheads and is considered to be the world’s biggest road-worthy ICBM. The solid-fuel Hwasong-18 is likely being scaled up to increase its ability to deliver bigger payloads. Still, it’s unclear whether the country’s ICBMs could beat US antimissile systems and are refined enough to strike their intended targets, as well as whether the warheads could survive reentry into the atmosphere.
How many nuclear devices does North Korea have?
At the low end, experts estimate that North Korea has assembled 40 to 50 nuclear warheads, the fewest among the nine nations with nuclear weapons. However, one estimate, from a 2021 study by the RAND Corp. and Asan Institute, put the number as high as 116. Another study last year from the Seoul-based Korea Institute for Defense Analyses estimated North Korea’s arsenal at about 80 to 90 warheads, and said it was looking to have between 100 to 300 over the long term. The country has conducted six atomic tests, with Kim responsible for the last four. The US, Japan and South Korea have all said another could come any time. The first detonation in 2006 measured less than one kiloton, leaving experts wondering whether it had been a partial failure. (A kiloton is equal to the force of 1,000 metric tons (1,102 US tons) of TNT). In 2017, the most recent test, the estimated yield of 120 to 250 kilotons dwarfed the 15 to 20 kiloton US bombs that destroyed Hiroshima and Nagasaki in 1945. North Korea probably has developed miniaturized nuclear devices to fit into its ballistic missile warheads, according to the assessment of “several” countries cited in a 2020 United Nations report.
Where does Kim’s military get its fissile material?
It has been self-sufficient for decades in fissile material, the main ingredient to create a nuclear chain reaction and explosion. The program today relies largely on enriched uranium and, according to weapons experts, produces enough annually for about six bombs. In addition, North Korea appeared in mid-2021 to have resumed plutonium-producing operations — another means of creating fissile material — at a nuclear reactor in its antiquated Yongbyon complex. In September, it released photos for the first time of a plant that enriches uranium for bombs, indicating it no longer sees a need to hide a program it once furiously denied when then President George W. Bush first made the accusation in 2002. The International Atomic Energy Agency said in late 2023 that North Korea had commissioned a new light-water nuclear reactor that could increase its annual plutonium production. Plutonium is likely a better fit for its miniaturized nuclear warheads than highly enriched uranium, experts have said. The reactors used to make the material are likely capable of producing tritium, which North Korea can use to build thermonuclear devices with far greater explosive force than a conventional nuclear bomb.
What other surprises might be out there?
Kim has been looking to build a nuclear-powered submarine and may seek help from Russia, which has a fleet of them. Pyongyang launched a new submarine in September 2023 it said was capable of firing off missiles for a nuclear attack, but the boat appears to be conventionally powered and probably can’t stray too far from shore without being detected. Satellite imagery indicates a new submarine may be under construction. The bigger question is what else Kim may seek from Russia in exchange for military aid that South Korea has said may include as many as 3 million artillery shells. Any technical assistance or shipments of fissile material could give Kim ample stocks of bomb-grade material and a bevy of new ways to package that into weapons.
How can the country afford all this?
The money needed is not huge in global terms. North Korea spends about $7 billion to $11 billion a year on its military, according to a US Defense Intelligence Agency assessment. That’s roughly equivalent to two days’ US military spending but still a huge figure for North Korea, with an economy estimated by South Korea’s central bank at about $29.5 billion in 2023. The value of the artillery Kim is providing Putin is likely several billion dollars and the aid from Russia could represent the biggest boost to North Korea’s economy since Kim took power. Although international sanctions have hit the economy hard, North Korea evades some of these through methods including clandestine transfers at sea of banned goods such as oil, and it generates cash using tactics that include ransomware attacks. Kim’s decade-old regime has already taken in as much as $3 billion through cybercrime and is geared to rake in even more, US and United Nations investigators have said.
Is Kim getting ready for war?
Speculation has mounted that Kim will turn his bellicose outbursts into concrete action since a pair of prominent specialists published an article that the leader has made a strategic decision to go to war. Robert Carlin and Siegfried Hecker said in the piece on the 38 North website that the North Korean leader has abandoned the state’s long-sought goal of normalizing relations with the US, adding they didn’t “know when or how Kim plans to pull the trigger.” US officials responded by saying there are no signs of changes indicating a war is coming, and Washington has warned Kim a nuclear attack would be suicidal. Also, aid from Russia is helping Kim to stabilize the economy, South Korea has said. While Kim may be emboldened by the cooperation with Moscow, he would put at risk a level of fiscal stability that he has not seen before if he tried an attack.
8. Wasn’t Trump going to fix this?
Talks between Kim and Donald Trump during the former US president’s time in office turned the duo from insult-throwing enemies into dialogue partners. But their three meetings didn’t produce any noticeable change, and North Korea has become what three decades of diplomacy had sought to prevent — a state capable of developing, projecting and detonating atomic bombs.
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