(Bloomberg) -- Ten years after Thaksin Shinawatra’s sister was removed from power, the family that’s dominated Thai politics since the turn of the century is back with the appointment of his daughter, Paetongtarn Shinawatra, as prime minister. The Shinawatras have been the driving force behind parties that won most Thai general elections since 2001, only to be booted out several times by a royalist establishment that viewed them as a threat. Last year, however, the former foes closed ranks to block a new, progressive party — Move Forward — from taking power. Thaksin returned from self-imposed exile and the Pheu Thai Party he backed joined with establishment groups in a new coalition government. The alliance has left many ordinary Thais wondering what the Shinawatras now stand for.
Who are the Shinawatras?
Descendants of a Chinese immigrant who married a Thai woman in the late 19th century, the Shinawatras are Thailand’s most prominent political dynasty, with three of its members occupying the country’s top political office at different times in the last 23 years. The 75-year-old billionaire Thaksin has been a polarizing but enduring figure in the nation’s politics since he first became prime minister in 2001. A landslide victory for his Thai Rak Thai Party in 2005 won him a second term in office, which ended abruptly a year later in a military coup. Thaksin left Thailand in 2008 to avoid corruption charges that he said were politically motivated. His sister Yingluck faced a similar fate after Pheu Thai won an election in 2011 and she became Thailand’s first female prime minister. Yingluck was ousted by judicial order in 2014 and weeks later her government was toppled in yet another coup.
How did the Shinawatras return to high office?
In May 2023, after almost nine years of military-backed rule, elections where held in which Pheu Thai came second to Move Forward, a new party that found support among mostly young and urban voters for its campaign to change a law that restricts what can be said about the nation’s powerful monarchy. In response, Pheu Thai and conservative, pro-establishment parties joined forces and agreed to make Pheu Thai’s Srettha Thavisin prime minister. Less than a year later, Srettha was removed from office by a court order over an ethics violation and Thaksin’s youngest daughter, Paetongtarn, won a parliamentary vote to succeed him.
What challenges await Paetongtarn Shinawatra?
Thaksin still has a royal insult trial hanging over him, and Srettha’s shortlived premiership showed the Shinawatras’ power still has its limits. The deal with the royalists has damaged Pheu Thai’s popularity. Move Forward’s leadership has established a new People’s Party with similar demands for more wholesale political change. The movement’s pledge to improve living standards with large-scale social welfare programs has challenged Pheu Thai’s status as the party of the working class. Many Thais are struggling with debts, inequality remains high and a decline in poverty has slowed along with rates of economic growth. With Thaksin set to wield significant influence over her administration, the 38-year-old Paetongtarn will face questions — as Yingluck did — as to whether she is a mere proxy for her father or can choose her own path.
How did the Shinawatras make their fortune?
Thaksin has portrayed himself as a self-made man from rural origins, but the family was relatively wealthy when he was growing up. The origin of their fortune was a silk business his ancestors established in the north of the country in the early 20th century. During a 14-year career in the police force, Thaksin started dabbling in silk retail, cinemas, real estate and computer leasing — with little success — before striking it rich in the technology boom of the 1980s and 1990s. His head start in the computer business and his political connections allowed him to snap up government concessions to operate paging and mobile phone services, cable TV subscriptions, data networks and satellites. At the height of his success, his Shin Corporation, now called Intouch Holdings, owned Thai mobile operator Advanced Info Service and satellite firm Shin Satellite (now Thaicom). Shin Corp was sold to Singapore state investment firm Temasek Holdings Pte in 2006. Today, Shinawatra family members including Thaksin’s ex-wife and three children — Panthongtae, Pintongta, and Paetongtarn — hold majority or controlling interests in companies spanning real estate to healthcare and hospitality. Some of those firms are listed on the Thai stock exchange, including property developer SC Asset, run by Thaksin’s son-in-law Nuttaphong Kunakornwong. Paetongtarn will have to step down from positions in the private sector to comply with share ownership laws as prime minister.
Why did the Thai establishment resent the Shinawatras?
The Shinawatras’ electoral and financial clout made them an intimidating rival to the traditional elite made up of army generals, judges and senior civil servants that’s dominated Thailand’s most powerful state institutions since the era of absolute monarchy ended in 1932. Thaksin’s entrepreneurial success and his credo of personal ambition and dignity echoed the American Dream and resonated with many ordinary Thais who had grown discontented with the paternalistic style of previous political leaders. While many wealthier, well-educated and city-dwelling Thais accused Thaksin of cronyism, populism and corruption, he enjoyed wide support among poorer and working-class voters in the country’s north and northeast who made up the majority of the Thai electorate and benefited from his big-ticket economic programs that came to be known as “Thaksinomics.” The groundswell of support for Thaksin was seen by the establishment as a threat to the country’s social hierarchy, in which the monarchy is perceived to sit at the top.
Why were the Shinawatras so popular?
In the wake of the 1997 Asian financial crisis, Thaksin spent heavily on grassroots measures designed to stimulate domestic demand such as debt moratorium plans for farmers, low-cost housing projects and loans for small and medium-sized enterprises. A universal healthcare initiative revolutionized access for poor people to medical care and still benefits millions of Thais two decades later. Its “gold card” is held by 47 million Thais, or 70% of the population. After a coup toppled Thaksin’s administration in 2006, his mostly rural supporters formed the pro-democracy “Red Shirt” movement to protest against his removal, and often clashed with a rival “Yellow Shirt” group made up of urban middle-class Thais that sought to eradicate the Shinawatras from Thai politics.
Why did Thaksin and Yingluck go into exile?
Opponents accused Thaksin of abusing his power to promote his family’s business interests. Sales of the Shinawatras’ majority stakes in Shin Corp to a foreign company were seen as the final straw, and mass protests by the Yellow Shirts eventually led to his downfall. Thaksin claimed assassination attempts were made against him before and after the 2006 coup, making him fear for his safety if he remained in Thailand. His then-wife Pojamarn Damapong was sentenced to jail for tax evasion linked to a transfer of Shin Corp shares, and Thaksin decided to flee in 2008 to avoid corruption charges. He spent the intervening years shuttling between Hong Kong, Singapore, Dubai and London, and was found guilty in absentia in four graft cases. Thaksin was ordered to serve eight years in prison for corruption after he returned to Thailand in 2023. He got his sentence commuted to one year in a royal pardon before getting out on special parole in February this year. Yingluck fled Thailand in 2017 and a court later sentenced her to five years in prison for criminal negligence in a rice subsidy program that cost the state billions of dollars. She remains in self-imposed exile.
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