(Bloomberg) -- Japanese workers’ real wages rose for a second consecutive month, keeping the central bank on track for another potential rate hike later this year.
Real cash earnings for workers climbed 0.4% in July from a year earlier, the labor ministry reported Thursday. While the pace of gains slowed from the previous month’s increase, the result beat the consensus call for a 0.6% decline and followed the first advance in 27 months in June. Nominal wages grew 3.6%, also outpacing the consensus estimate.
The yen strengthened to as strong as 143.19 against the dollar following the data release, taking gains to as much as 0.4% for the day.
Base salaries experienced strong growth, rising 2.7%, the largest gain in 31 years. A more stable measure of wage trends that avoids sampling problems and excludes bonuses and overtime showed wages for full-time workers increased by a record 3%.
Thursday’s data are an indication that a key peg of the virtuous cycle long sought by Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda may be falling into place. The BOJ has said it expects wage gains to fuel demand-led inflation, a condition it needs to confirm as it continues along the path toward normalizing policy after maintaining ultra-easy settings for decades.
“Ueda’s comments indicate that he still wants to raise interest rates,” said Masato Koike, economist at Sompo Institute Plus. “Assuming no further market turmoil, and given that wage growth will provide significant support, the likelihood of a rate hike before the end of the year has increased considerably.”
Almost all economists expect the BOJ to stand pat when the board next sets policy on Sept. 20. Most expect a move sometime between October and January after the BOJ conducted its second rate hike this year on July 31.
Ueda has said the bank would consider additional tightening steps if the economy and prices develop in line with the bank’s projections.
The gain in real wages will create a positive backdrop as the ruling Liberal Democratic Party chooses a new leader. Given its dominance in parliament, the LDP’s Sept. 27 election is all but certain to determine the nation’s next premier after Prime Minister Fumio Kishida announced his decision to step down. Kishida resigned after persistently low approval ratings that partly reflected voter dissatisfaction over the failure of wages to keep up with rising prices.
Thursday’s strong data were driven largely by the historic wage gains that resulted from annual wage negotiations between the nation’s largest umbrella group for unions and employers. The union group, Rengo, secured wage increases of more than 5% for its constituents, the largest gains in more than 30 years. The BOJ has said in the past that over 80% of wage increases agreed for a new fiscal year tend to be reflected in data by July.
What Bloomberg Economics Says...
“For policy, the wage data increase our conviction that a rate hike will be on the table at the October meeting — though uncertainty over the pace of the US slowdown means it’s not a clearcut call.”
— Taro Kimura, economist
Click here to read the full report
Japan’s chronic labor shortage is likely to keep upward pressure on wages, the BOJ said in its latest Outlook for Economic Activity and Prices. Japan’s large service sector firms are facing the worst manpower constraints in 32 years, according to the BOJ’s June Tankan report.
Companies have reported relatively robust results in the latest quarter, suggesting they have some leeway to keep rewarding workers. Some 64% of companies in the Topix index beat earnings expectations in the latest quarter, while 33% missed, a better ratio than the previous period, according to Bloomberg-compiled data.
While inflation remains at a relatively high level, having hit or hovered above the BOJ’s 2% target for more than two years, there are also signs of improving consumer sentiment. Consumption turned positive for the first time in five quarters in the April-June period, partly supported by recent wage gains and the government’s tax rebate initiative.
Revised gross domestic product figures incorporating the latest data will be released on Monday.
--With assistance from Keiko Ujikane and Ken McCallum.
(Updates with economist comments, more details.)
©2024 Bloomberg L.P.