(Bloomberg) -- Fans have been waiting 15 years for the Oasis reunion but when it comes to the UK economy, the impact appears to be definitely more of a maybe.
The Gallagher brothers rose to fame in the mid 1990s, when Britpop, Tony Blair and economic growth were all ascendant. Now with Labour back in power, Prime Minister Keir Starmer may be hoping the band’s 17 UK and Ireland comeback concerts next year augur a similar boost to the national mood, after he arrived in Downing Street grumbling about a dire economic inheritance from his predecessors.
Economists caution against reading too much into a fierce fight for tickets that started on Saturday at 9 a.m. London time and crashed multiple ticket-selling websites, including the Manchester-based promoter SJM Concerts’ Gigs and Tours and seetickets.com pages.
While fans told Bloomberg they’re willing to spend whatever it takes, that zeal won’t necessarily show up in UK output data. It would also say little about the strength of household finances, especially as other factors weigh more heavily: Britons are facing higher energy bills this winter and borrowing costs remain elevated.
“You’re more likely to see a feel-good factor rather than a significant increase in GDP,” said Modupe Adegbembo, an economist at Jefferies in London. “Any boost to consumer sentiment, even if it is a strong one, it’s likely to be limited if it isn’t also supported by an improving macro outlook.”
As with so much else, Taylor Swift set the precedent. UK consumers were projected to spend almost £1 billion ($1.3 billion) on tickets, travel and accommodation for her June and August concerts, according to a Barclays report ahead of the gigs. But that seems to have had only a limited effect on GDP figures: Official data showed arts, entertainment and recreation output crept up only 0.1% between May and June.
“Consumers typically try to make up for spending on these big-ticket services by cutting back elsewhere — for instance by eating out less or skipping leisure activities where possible,” said Ana Andrade of Bloomberg Economics. Still, “the idiosyncrasy of the upcoming Oasis tour is that it will mainly take place in the UK, so there will be a boost to spending from abroad that otherwise wouldn’t take place.”
Even so, any boost is likely to be small and temporary. The Paris Olympic Games — another event people travel for, and that’s much bigger than any Oasis reunion — is projected to have temporarily lifted France’s quarterly GDP growth by just 0.3%, according to Bloomberg Economics estimates.
The concerts may create a one-off spike in hotel and ticket prices, much as Swift did when services inflation came in hotter than expected in June, making that data slightly harder to read just before a “knife-edge” decision on interest rates. But hotel-price spikes linked to the Oasis reunion could just as easily not register, as they’re only collected on certain specific dates which the ONS doesn’t disclose in advance.
On Friday, the Gallagher brothers issued a warning after tickets obtained in the pre-sale ballot were listed on unofficial reselling websites for thousands of pounds. A post on the band’s X page said tickets could only be sold via official sites and any tickets in breach of the terms and conditions would be cancelled by the promoters.
If Oasis ticket prices do make a difference, they’ll show up in the Bank of England’s reading of the data only in 2025, as they count toward inflation figures when the event takes place rather than when tickets are bought. BOE policymakers prefer to act on long-term trends — even if standing in a field with a shabby mod cut turns out to be one of those.
--With assistance from Irina Anghel, Tom Rees and Chloé Meley.
(Updates with details on ticket-selling websites crashing.)
©2024 Bloomberg L.P.