(Bloomberg) -- Thailand’s most prominent businessmen, politicians and diplomats turned up at a dinner event last week to listen to former leader Thaksin Shinawatra share his vision for the nation. It was the clearest sign yet of the influence he is likely to wield over his daughter’s administration.
Among those making a beeline to greet the 75-year-old politician were Thailand’s top billionaires Sarath Ratanavadi and Dhanin Chearavanont. The event organizer had to turn down requests for more invites to the dinner, which came less than a week after Thaksin’s daughter Paetongtarn Shinawatra, 38, won a parliament vote to become Thailand’s youngest-ever prime minister.
“As a father, I care for my daughter and must help her, but I won’t be interfering in her duties as prime minister,” Thaksin said at the dinner attended by 1,500 people. “But I also can’t stay still and look at problems in the country without caring either.”
Thaksin’s views at the dinner have been closely dissected by analysts and media for days after. His comments have been interpreted as a blueprint that’s likely to be adopted by Paetongtarn and her cabinet when they take office in the next couple of weeks.
In his speech, Thaksin offered his fixes on every conceivable problem confronting contemporary Thailand, including chronic public and household debt. He also commented on Thai politics, including how a recent royal defamation case against him was masterminded by a political opponent.
The two-time former premier even touched on military coups, saying he was confident there won’t be one against Paetongtarn’s administration, as he will be helping her clean up any “rubbish” that he spots.
Paetongtarn had dismissed claims about her father’s influence over her premiership. “There’s certainly no such influence,” she told reporters last week. “I’m my own person.”
Political observers said the dinner talk showed that Thaksin wields significant influence in setting the course of action for his daughter’s government. “The speech was aimed at allaying concerns from Thai business elites about her leadership,” said Olarn Thinbangtieo, a deputy dean of Burapha University’s Faculty of Political Science and Law.
Still, there is much for the Shinawatra clan to be cautious about. Paetongtarn’s cabinet formation has been delayed as officials pay close attention to the vetting of ministers after her predecessor Srettha Thavisin, from the same Pheu Thai party, was dismissed by a court for ethics violation for appointing a convicted lawyer as a cabinet minister.
Adding to the delays, Pheu Thai now plans to exclude a pro-military conservative group from its coalition as Palang Pracharath’s leader Prawit Wongsuwan did not attend the parliament vote on Aug. 16 to select Paetongtarn as prime minister.
‘Thaksinomics’
Thailand’s benchmark SET Index has bounced about 5.8% since Paetongtarn was nominated as the next prime minister on Aug. 15. It gained 1% the day after Thaksin gave his dinner talk. The baht, now trading near the highest since July last year, has gained more than 7% since the beginning of last month.
“Thaksin’s words hold more weight in the eyes of financial markets,” said Burin Adulwattana, managing director and chief economist at Kasikorn Research Center. “Someone influential who can guide the government in the right direction would be seen as a welcome addition. Pheu Thai needs a wow factor to solve economic problems.”
There are concerns over how Paetongtarn, who has had no administrative experience, will navigate the challenges facing the $500-billion economy that’s the second-largest in Southeast Asia. The new leader is likely to lean on her father for guidance, as the billionaire politician’s dual track policy approach — dubbed as “Thaksinomics” — was key in driving growth to 5.36% annually during his time in power from 2001 until 2006.
According to a survey published on Sunday by the National Institute of Development Administration, as many as 74.4% of the 1,310 respondents said it was “impossible” or “not likely” that Paetongtarn would not depend on Thaksin in governing the country.
“Paetongtarn is both lucky and unlucky to be Thaksin’s daughter,” Olarn of Burapha University said. “He must now be careful to not outshine his daughter and instead make his shine reflect on her.”
(Updates with Thaksin’s party removing a coalition partner in paragraph 10.)
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