(Bloomberg) -- Bond yields climbed and stocks struggled, with traders betting Jerome Powell will throw cold water on market expectations for aggressive interest-rate cuts this year.
In the run-up to Powell’s speech in Jackson Hole, Treasuries tumbled, with the move led by shorter maturities. The dollar gained. The S&P 500 lost steam after getting close to its all-time high. Tech megacaps sold off. The swap market has cemented wagers the Federal Reserve will ease policy by one percentage point this year, starting in September with the likelihood of a 25- or even 50-basis-point cut.
“Will Powell allude to a slow walk down the monetary policy stairs or a speedy elevator ride down to the basement?” said Jose Torres at Interactive Brokers. “Powell is likely to choose the stairwell rather than the elevator.”
Wall Street traders waded through a raft of remarks from U.S. policymakers, with Fed Bank of Kansas City President Jeffrey Schmid saying he wants to see more data before supporting cuts. His Boston counterpart Susan Collins says “a gradual, methodical pace” is likely to be appropriate. Her comments were echoed by Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker in a CNBC interview.
“The script is clear — the Fed is going to ease in September, but no one is portraying a desire to ease 50 basis points at this time,” said Andrew Brenner at NatAlliance Securities.
Traders are overplaying the prospects of an aggressive series of Fed cuts before the end of the year, according to Mohamed El-Erian.
“It is problematic in my mind that the market is pricing in so many rate cuts right now,” El-Erian, the president of Queens’ College, Cambridge, told Bloomberg Television on Thursday. “The market is overdoing it.”
Treasury 10-year yields advanced six basis points to 3.86%. The S&P 500 dropped 0.9%. The Nasdaq 100 fell 1.7%, with Nvidia Corp. leading losses in big tech. Intel Corp. tumbled 6.1%. Banks climbed and energy shares joined oil higher. Peloton Interactive Inc. surged 35% after the fitness company reported earnings that beat estimates.
“We are now once again not debating if they will cut, but by how much they will cut and how many times they will cut before year end,” said Kenny Polcari at SlateStone Wealth. “I am in the 25 basis-point and three-times camp. The U.S. economy is not circling the drain – so there is no need to suggest that it is.”
Chris Senyek at Wolfe Research says his sense is that Powell will signal an easing cycle starting in September. However, contrary to what the market is pricing in for the remainder of 2024, he doesn’t believe the Fed Chair will signal a cut larger than 25 basis points.
Sam Stovall at CFRA also bets the next Fed-easing cycle will be initiated in a “more measured fashion” with a 25 basis-point cut.
“This ‘slower to lower’ approach will likely be intended to signal that the Fed is not behind the curve, but will allow it to ensure that the embers of inflation have been fully extinguished before concluding that its mission has been completed,” he noted.
On the economic front, the latest figures were more of a “mixed bag.” Data showed jobless claims data showed the labor market is cooling only gradually — rather than rapidly slowing. U.S. manufacturing activity shrank at the fastest pace this year on further weakness in production, orders and factory employment. And existing-home sales increased for the first time in five months.
“The U.S. economy overall has, thus far, been robust enough to take an extended Fed rate pause,” said Don Rissmiller at Strategas. “But there’s a clear case for rate cuts soon.”
Corporate Highlights:
· Snowflake Inc. gave a sales outlook that failed to reassure investors that the company will gain ground in the market for artificial intelligence software tools. The shares fell in extended traded.
· Urban Outfitters Inc., the Anthropologie and Free People brands, posted quarterly sales growth that came in below Wall Street’s expectations.
· Carlyle Group Inc. is acquiring Advance Auto Parts Inc.’s Worldpac unit for US$1.5 billion, striking the first major industrial investment for the firm in more than two years.
· Zoom Video Communications Inc. gave a sales forecast for the current quarter that beat analysts’ estimates, suggesting its expanded suite of products is making gains with business customers.
· Starboard Value LP urged Autodesk Inc.’s board to evaluate whether Chief Executive Officer Andrew Anagnost is the right person to lead the company following recent accounting issues.
Key events this week:
· Japan CPI, Friday
· BOJ’s Kazuo Ueda to attend special session at Japan’s parliament to discuss July hike, Friday
· U.S. new home sales, Friday
· Jerome Powell speaks in Jackson Hole, Friday
Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
· The S&P 500 fell 0.9% as of 4 p.m. New York time
· The Nasdaq 100 fell 1.7%
· The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.4%
· The MSCI World Index fell 0.6%
· Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index fell 2.4%
· The Russell 2000 Index fell 0.9%
Currencies
· The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.4%
· The euro fell 0.4% to $1.1108
· The British pound was little changed at $1.3085
· The Japanese yen fell 0.8% to 146.31 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
· Bitcoin fell 1.5% to $60,314.55
· Ether fell 0.9% to $2,607.87
Bonds
· The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced six basis points to 3.86%
· Germany’s 10-year yield advanced five basis points to 2.24%
· Britain’s 10-year yield advanced seven basis points to 3.96%
Commodities
· West Texas Intermediate crude rose 1.4% to $72.93 a barrel
· Spot gold fell 1.2% to $2,483.12 an ounce
This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
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