(Bloomberg) -- Ukraine and Russia both lack the military assets to mount major offensives against each other, the Pentagon’s intelligence agency said in new assessments that suggests the two sides are headed toward stalemate.
The Defense Intelligence Agency assessments conclude that Ukraine still doesn’t have the munitions to match Russia’s ability to fire some 10,000 artillery rounds a day, even after the US Congress unlocked fresh military aid in April. Ukrainian forces remain capable of defensive operations but won’t be able to launch large-scale counteroffensives for at least six months.
Russia, on the other hand, has adopted a strategy of exhausting Ukraine and will be able to maintain a buffer zone its troops captured — but doesn’t have enough strength “to threaten a deeper advance into Ukrainian-held territory, such as Kharkiv city,” said DIA in one observation.
The Defense Intelligence Agency’s conclusions are included in the latest quarterly report on US assistance to Ukraine issued by the Pentagon’s inspector general, Robert Storch. They echo public statements by senior US officials including Mark Milley, the former chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, that the conflict was about to become deadlocked.
The inspector general report covers the three-month period ending June 30, after Congress passed the latest $61 billion assistance package for Ukraine. Since then, Ukraine launched a surprise incursion into Russia’s Kursk region and has started to fly allied-provided F-16 fighters.
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The report highlighted Ukraine’s successful use of the US-provided Army Tactical Missile System, or ATACMS, beyond previously disclosed attacks on Russian ammunition storage areas and parked helicopters at two locations inside Ukraine.
A Ukrainian ATACMS missile strike on Sevastopol on May 18 sank a corvette. Ukraine also used the system to strike Russian air defenses in Crimea, destroying several of the most advanced S-400 missile systems, the report noted.
The ATACMS strikes required Russian forces to reinforce Crimea air-defense systems with their most advanced system, the S-500, to protect the Kerch Strait Bridge, for example, according to DIA.
“The S-500 system has not yet been demonstrated to be fully operational in Ukraine, which DIA views as an indication of Russia’s struggle to provide adequate air defense of Crimea,” according to the report.
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