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Here Are the Nine Candidates to Become Japan’s Next Leader

(Toru Hanai/Photographer: Toru Hanai/Bloombe)

(Bloomberg) -- A record nine candidates will contest Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party’s leadership election on Sept. 27. The vote is all but assured to produce the country’s next prime minister, due to the party’s dominance in parliament. 

The candidates come from all across the party, including reformists and conservatives, and there’s no outright favorite. All are pledging to defeat deflation and raise incomes as they seek to boost consumption and reinvigorate economic growth. 

Over the next two weeks or so, the leadership hopefuls will be looking to shore up support from their fellow lawmakers and rank-and-file party members, with some eyeing calling a general election soon if they are elected.

Whoever is chosen will replace current Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, who surprised many by saying in August he wouldn’t run in the election, ending his term after nearly three years as premier. 

Here’s a look at the contenders to replace Kishida.

Shinjiro Koizumi, 43

The son of a former premier, Koizumi attracted attention in September 2023 for surfing off Fukushima to ease safety concerns following the release of treated wastewater from the wrecked nuclear plant. A former environment minister and proponent of renewable energy, Koizumi made headlines for becoming the first serving cabinet minister to take paternity leave. Koizumi is generally running first or second in polls asking voters who they would like to become prime minister. 

Key policies

  • Economy: Wants to kick-start growth by slashing regulations and encouraging the growth of businesses like ride-sharing. Would support foreign businesses entering Japan
  • Financial: Says it’s not the time to discuss capital gains tax on financial income, given recent moves from savings to investment
  • Energy: Sees restarting new nuclear reactors as an option and wants to reduce the amount spent on fossil fuels

Shigeru Ishiba, 67

A former defense minister, Ishiba ranks high in voter surveys of popularity. In his last four tries at the top job, he has struggled to garner enough support from his fellow lawmakers to win the leadership race. In recent weeks, Ishiba has expressed support for the Bank of Japan’s normalization of monetary policy. 

Key policies:

  • Monetary: Has backed the BOJ’s July 31 decision to raise rates and criticized the government’s past long-term extraordinary easing policy
  • Economic: Looks to reinvigorate domestic demand to spur growth, rather than relying on foreign trade; puts a high emphasis on reviving regional economies
  • Foreign: Supports building partnerships in the region as a way of deterrence against the likes of China, including the idea of a collective security pact like NATO; pushes for a more equal US Japan security partnership

Sanae Takaichi, 63

A former heavy metal drummer and hard-line conservative, Takaichi has cited former UK Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher as an inspiration. Currently minister for economic security, Takauchi is among the leading contenders according to recent public opinion polls. She is a frequent visitor to Yasukuni Shrine, a site regarded by Japan’s neighbors as a symbol of past militarism. 

Key policies:

  • Monetary: Support for ultra-loose monetary policy of stance of former premier Abe; doesn’t think price target has been stably met
  • Fiscal: Believes a strong economy would bring stable growth without raising tax rates; seeks strategic fiscal spending
  • Energy: Says Japan should target 100% energy self-sufficiency; Would invest in next-generation nuclear reactors in the latter half of 2020s, look to nuclear fusion in the 2030s

Kono Taro, 61

A former foreign and defense minister with a combatative style, Kono lost to Kishida in the last leadership race due to a lack of backing from his parliamentary peers. Kono is in the middle of the pack in recent public opinion polls. Kono has softened his opposition to nuclear power in recent years. He asks that his name be written Japanese style, with his family name first. 

Key policies:

  • Monetary: Supports BOJ policy normalization if inflation remains in line with expectations. Has also said the weak yen is a problem for Japan
  • Fiscal: Says fiscal consolidation is a priority after large stimulus spending during the pandemic
  • Digital: Called for ending antiquated practices such as use of name stamps as he seeks wider reforms

Takayuki Kobayashi, 49

Considered part of the next generation of potential leaders, Kobayashi is a long shot to take over in 2024. By running now he is letting LDP members and voters know he has his eyes set on eventually becoming premier. 

Key policies:

  • Monetary: Has spoken about the difficulties of absorbing bonds domestically and the need for seeking overseas investors
  • Economy: Has said the economy takes precedence over finance indicating that spending for growth is important
  • Trade: Expressed need for Japan to strengthen supply chains including those for critical minerals like lithium and cobalt that are used in energy transition technologies
  • Energy: Pushes for more coal-fired power plants, and says there’s too much emphasis on renewable energy now

Toshimitsu Motegi, 68

A party heavyweight who recently said the BOJ should more clearly show its intention to normalize monetary policy, Motegi is currently in the LDP’s No. 2 position. A former foreign minister, he’s also a Harvard graduate and has a tough guy image within the party. 

Key policies:

  • Monetary: Has said BOJ should more clearly show its intention to normalize monetary policy to support the yen, as a weak currency might drive up prices
  • Fiscal: Says he wouldn’t raise taxes and would instead boost revenue through economic growth. He has also advocated returning some of Japan’s increased tax revenues to the people via direct tax cuts
  • Foreign: Has portrayed himself as a strong leader who would be able to manage relations with the US well

Yoshimasa Hayashi, 63

Hayashi is from the dovish wing of the ruling party and a trusted lieutenant of Kishida. He ran unsuccessfully in the LDP leadership race in 2012 and is considered by many political analysts to be an outsider in this year’s election. Hayashi studied at Harvard University and spent most of the Kishida administration as foreign minister. 

Key policies:

  • Economy: Supports fiscal spending but says it’s important to keep confidence in Japanese government bonds
  • Foreign policy: Rejects criticism he’s pro-China and says he’s someone who prioritizes dialogue, including with China; says he will seek an immediate end to China’s import ban on Japanese seafood
  • Energy: In favor of restarting nuclear power plants if their safety is confirmed

Yoko Kamikawa, 71

Kamikawa is a Harvard graduate who ran her own consulting firm before entering politics. She is known for her efforts to promote women candidates, which is an uphill battle given that only about 12% of LDP lawmakers are female. Kamikawa has also come under fire from activists for signing off on as many as 16 executions, including six members of the Aum Shinrikyo doomsday cult, while serving as the justice minister. 

Key Policies:

  • Economy: She aims to provide strong measures to relieve the impact from inflation and boost real wages
  • Fiscal: She supported active spending ahead of the last LDP election in 2021 but has since flagged the need for fiscal discipline
  • Foreign: Has firmly backed trilateral security cooperation among Japan, South Korea and the US and has pressed to advance human rights globally
  • Energy: Says the possibility of nuclear power is key for stable energy supply

Katsunobu Kato, 68

Seven-term lawmaker Kato helped guide Japan through the Covid-19 pandemic, when the country fared better than most of its Group of Seven peers. Kato has not ruffled a lot of feathers in the ruling party, while playing key roles under the last three premiers. Before going into politics Kato was a Ministry of Finance official. 

Key policies: 

  • Monetary policy: In a Bloomberg interview, he said Japan should continue to aim for a world where interest rates and prices keep moving
  • Economic policy: Said would swiftly draw up a supplementary budget for economic stimulus; aims to increase minimum wage to ¥1500 ($10.45)
  • Fiscal policy: Seeks a balanced approach to managing fiscal health and securing growth

--With assistance from Isabel Reynolds, Yuki Hagiwara, Jon Herskovitz, Yui Hasebe, Yoshiaki Nohara and Takashi Umekawa.

(Updates with confirmation of the final line up of candidates.)

©2024 Bloomberg L.P.

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